Econ70
When the Fed began raising rates in 3/22, Fed funds was 0.125% and the CPI was 8.5%, thus the real Fed funds rate was a very stimulative negative 8.375%. Today Fed funds is 5.375% and the CPI is 3%. Thus,…
While US consumer spending remains strong, incomes are not keeping up. Inflation-adjusted Y-o-Y income growth has slid from 5.3% a year ago, to 3.8% in 12/23 to 1% now, while real spending is up 2.6% Y-o-Y, a huge 1.6 percentage…
The Friday file: On 7/26/1903, Horatio Jackson was the first to cross the US by car. The journey from San Francisco to Manhattan with a mechanic took 63 days. The current record is 25 hours and 39 minutes, set in…
The first estimate for 24Q2 real GDP came in at a surprisingly strong 2.8% annualized rate, well above expectations of, at most, 2%, and well up from 1.4% in 24Q1. The result was due to rising inventories, strong consumer spending…
The cost of virtual consultation with a primary care physician is $99. Seeing the same doctor in their office raises the cost of service to $170. If you go to an urgent-care center/clinic the cost to provide care rises to…
For the year end 3/24, foreigners purchased 54,300 homes, down 36% Y-o-Y, and the lowest number since recordkeeping began in 2009. The biggest impediments; a strong dollar and limited inventory. Dollar volume fell 21% to $42 billion despite an average…
While June housing starts were up 3% M-o-M to a 1.353-million-unit annualized rate, the rise was all volatile multifamily driven. Single-family starts fell 2.2% and are now down four months in a row. Moreover, June starts came in at 980,000…
The Friday File: On Thursday, my favorite comedian Bob Newhart died. His 1961 record “The Button-Down Mind of Bob Newhart (which I remember vividly) quickly led to “The Button-Down Mind Strikes Back. At one point they were #1 and #2…
Yesterday’s release of the Fed’s Beige Book, covering economic activity from mid-May through the end of June, will not be a best seller. While seven Fed districts exhibited growth, five districts recorded “flat or declining activity”. That is down from…
The state average mortgage interest rate varies from 3.8% in Colorado and Utah to 4.5% in Mississippi and West Virginia. Eight states are at 4.3% including FL, NY, and TX. General average rates rise as you move east. The variation…