Econ70
Seasonally adjusted annualized July housing sales came in at 3.95 million, the 35th straight month of Y-o-Y declines, and the fifth month of sub-4 million sales, a level historically rarely seen. Troublingly, 30-year rates are 81 basis points lower Y-o-Y…
For the year ending 3/24, estimated job growth has been preliminarily revised down by 818,000, bringing average job growth down from 242,000/month to 174,000/month. The revision is based on data from state unemployment insurance tax records, not low response rate…
Gold recently surpassed $2,500/oz and has been rising rapidly since 10/22, when it traded at $1,650/oz. A major reason, central bank buying. From 1970-1988, cumulative net central bank gold purchases were roughly zero. From 1989-2009, banks were net sellers every…
Two recent papers show the detrimental effects of gambling. One reports that where gambling is legal, average credit scores drop 0.3% after four years, and where online betting is legal, they drop by 1% and bankruptcy filings rise 25%-30% within…
The Friday File: It’s always critical to remember that correlation is not causation. For example, there is a .93 correlation coefficient (CC), and an R-Squared of .86 between the name Bailey and attendance at Cleveland Indians/Guardians baseball games between 1975-2019.…
July CPI fell to 2.9%, its lowest level since 3/21, while the more important core measure hit 3.2%, its lowest since 4/21. Moreover, over the last three months core CPI is up 1.6% annualized, down from 2.1% in June. The…
Pre-Covid, next twelve-month operating margins for fortune 500 firms on an equal weighted basis (thus largely excluding tech mega-caps), were 13%. When Covid hit they quickly collapsed to 9% by 6/20. However, over the ensuing 12 months they more than…
When fund managers were asked what they consider the biggest tail risk, a recession is now top for 39% of managers, up from 18% a few months ago. Geopolitical conflict is unchanged at 25%, while inflation follows at 12%, down…
The labor market is meaningfully weakening. A year ago, the Y-o-Y increase in the labor force was 3 million and net employment gains were 2.9 million. 97% of job entrants found a job. Now the labor force is 1.3 million…
The Friday File: The current dollar value of a Paris Olympic gold medal is slightly over $1,000. The medal is composed of 505 grams of silver and six grams of gold. Silver medals are composed of 505 grams of silver…