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While August housing starts slid 6% Y-o-Y, all-important single-family starts slid almost 12% Y-o-Y. Worse, housing permits slid 11% Y-o-Y, and at 1.362 million annualized and seasonally adjusted, have been steadily weakening since at least early 2023 and as far…

There is currently movement to end the quarterly reporting requirement by public firms and replace it with semi-annual reporting. It’s argued this will reduce administrative costs and discourage short-term thinking. But six months is hardly long-term, and in the UK,…

The Friday File: Bok Tower Gardens of Florida won the 2025 Waterlily Weigh-Off, the third annual competition hosted by the Denver Botanic Gardens in August. Bok Tower Gardens’ lily pad supported a record-setting 183 pounds before it started to sink,…

With suddenly weak job growth, there is some debate about whether this is due to a lack of demand for workers by firms or a lack of supply due to new immigration policies. Make no mistake, it’s primarily declining labor…

Unsurprisingly, the Fed reduced rates 25bps. What’s surprising; one FOMC member, its newest, sees more than 50bps in cuts this year, nine expect two 25bps cuts, two see one cut, and seven see none. The median is two cuts, but…

The 30-year mortgage rate is now 6.35%, down from over 7% in January. As a result, a buyer with a $3,000/month budget can now afford a $466,000 home with a 20% downpayment. At 7%, the same budget would only allow…

An economic slowdown paired with rate cuts, absent a profit recession, is great for equities. Even if earnings multiples compress, falling borrowing costs and resilient earnings support stocks. A weaker dollar adds another lift. Corporations can further boost ROE by…

The Friday File: Sturgis, SD, population 7,000 grows during Sturgis Week to 700,000, an incomprehensible increase of 100x, 10,000%. Nevada’s Black Rock City population goes from 0 to 70,000 during Burning Man, but it’s not normally a city. NH’s Laconia…

While mortgage debt is up $2.88 trillion from the Housing Bubble peak, as a percentage of GDP it’s 44.6%. During the Housing Bubble, that percentage exceeded 70%. Better yet, the last time mortgage debt as a percentage of GDP was…

Last year, American, Delta, United, and Southwest posted a combined $12 billion passenger operating loss but still recorded $13.5 billion in net profits. While freight helped, loyalty programs that bind customers to airlines and airline credit cards were primarily why.…