70 Words

HOBBLED HOUSING

08/25/2025

July new home sales were 652,000 seasonally adjusted and annualized, down 0.6% M-o-M and 8.2% Y-o-Y. Worse, it now takes builders 2.9 months to make a sale upon completion, the longest duration in over three years. Making things worse, the…

PERFECT PUMPKIN

08/22/2025

The Friday File: Contrary to what the calendar says (9/22/25), fall commences next Tuesday, 8/26/25, as that is when Starbucks will again be serving their famous Pumpkin Spice Latte. If you think this is early for the rollout, think again.…

POWELL POWER

08/21/2025

The critical thing about Powell’s talk tomorrow is tone. Can he really offer dovish rate guidance? Equities are at/near record highs, credit spreads are near their tightest ever, the dollar at its lowest level in years, unemployment is just 4.2%,…

WEAKENING WAGES

08/20/2025

Pre-2015, wage growth was consistently higher for high-income workers than low-income ones. Starting in 2015, that began to reverse, and during Covid that new relationship was turbo-charged. Income growth for the bottom fifth of the population at times was twice…

CONSUMER CONSUMPTION

08/19/2025

During the year ending 7/25, spending increased 2% for the top third of households, those earning over $120,000/year, 1% for the middle third of households, and was zero, or zilch for the bottom third of households, those earning roughly $50,000/year…

INCREASING INFLATION

08/18/2025

After steadily falling since mid-2022, inflation is again rising. Last month, Y-o-Y import prices rose at their fastest pace this year, Y-o-Y wholesale prices rose at the fastest pace in three years, and Y-o-Y wholesale vegetable prices rose 39% last…

TAIL TALLY

08/15/2025

The Friday File: In 2025, Americans are expected to spend $157 billion on their pets, 62% more than in 2019. $67.1 billion will be spent on pet food/treats, $41.4 billion on veterinary care and products, $34.3 billion on supplies, live…

RATE REVERSALS

08/14/2025

For those clamoring for a rate cut, be careful what you ask for. What matters most to the economy is the 10-year Treasury. The Fed, outside of quantitative easing/tightening, only controls the short end of the curve. Last September, when…

CONCERNING CPI

08/13/2025

July CPI was steady at 0.2% M-o-M and 2.7% Y-o-Y. Unfortunately, the all-important core measure rose from 2.9% to 3.1% Y-o-Y, the highest since 2/25, and was up 0.3% M-o-M, adding to the headache the Fed already has. This is…

CREDIT CONCERN

08/12/2025

During the month of June, outstanding credit card balances dipped $1.1 billion and that followed a $3.8 billion decline in May. Balances have now declined in three of the last four months, and over the past year credit balances have…

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