Widely watched monthly net job growth figures have sunk 70% since 1/1/25. This could indicate the onset of a recession if population growth and concomitantly labor force growth is strong. However, it could also be the new normal if net…
25Q3 GDP growth is projected to have grown as fast as 3.8%. Yet, simultaneously, unemployment is worsening, hours worked are largely flat, and ADP suggests September employment declined. How can this dichotomy be? Maybe there’ll be data revisions, maybe it’s…
The Case-Shiller home price index slid for the fifth straight month, and the Y-o-Y increase is just 1.7%. A year ago, it was 5%. Moreover, real home prices have been declining as inflation exceeds 2.5%. Critically, owner-occupied housing is an…
In 25Q3, companies announced 202,118 layoffs, the highest third-quarter total since 2020, when 497,215 were recorded. So far this year, firms have cut 946,426 jobs, also the most for January–September since 2020. That’s up 55% from last year’s 609,242 cuts…
The Friday File: When asked to score 25 key sectors of the economy, Americans gave top grades to Farming & Agriculture with a positive score 60/100, followed closely by the Computer Industry at 59%. Restaurants are third at 52%. They…
With the government closed, the BLS’ September monthly job report due Friday is delayed. However, the September ADP private-sector jobs report, based on data from employers who use ADP and covering over 26 million workers, 19% of private-sector employment, showed…
Stablecoins are backed by non-monetary assets, primarily government bonds. Importantly, you can transact with stablecoins without a bank account, but critically, stablecoin platforms lack access to the central bank. As a result, their stability will depend on redemption rules, which…
Officially, car prices have remained nearly unchanged for the past two years at slightly below $50,000. But destination fees, whatever they are, are up 8.5%, zero-percent financing is now 3.9%, and base-models have largely disappeared, replaced by higher trim models…
It looks like the federal government will likely shut down on 10/1/25, so get ready for some scary-sounding GDP loss numbers. Don’t believe them. Once the government reopens, all the missed pay and bills get covered. While the initial hit…
The Friday File: A much-popularized 1970s survey claimed Americans were more afraid of public speaking than death. In 2012, an attempt was made to replicate the above results. Fortunately, they were unsuccessful. The more recent data show that when subjects…