Seven months into Trump’s Tough Tariffs, the impact has been largely anticlimactic. Inflation is up, but not much due to the tariffs being implemented slowly, effective tariff rates being lower than statutory rates, inventory being worked down, and retailers eating…
With limited government data, 25Q3 corporate earnings are receiving outsized attention. Of the 304 Fortune 500 firms reporting so far, 83% have topped analysts’ earnings estimates, and by a wide margin. These results are especially positive given recent bankruptcies of…
The Friday File: This year’s winner of the 52nd World Championship Pumpkin Weigh-Off in Half Moon Bay, CA, held earlier this month, was Brian Dawson. His winning gourd came in at a staggering 2,346 lbs. The world record of 2,749…
The Friday File: 75% of Americans will celebrate Halloween and 25% consider it their favorite holiday. 50% plan to eat candy, 46% plan to hand it out, 31% will get dressed up, and 23% will go trick-or-treating. Reese’s Peanut Butter…
With new sanctions on Russian oil, the volume of global production now under sanctions is 15%, but that has had trivial impacts on supply. Russian oil exports hit a record high last month, and Iranian exports are at their highest…
To the surprise of nobody, the Fed cut rates by 25bps. The surprise was it was hawkish cut. The phrases “not a forgone conclusion” and “in fact far from it” are key. Moreover, there was one dissent in favor of no cut. With…
Unless the government closure magically ends this week, on 11/1/25 SNAP (formerly Food Stamps) benefits will end for almost 42 million Americans, 12.3% of the population. While the belief that SNAP recipients are lazy is widespread, the data says otherwise.…
September CPI came in relatively tame at 0.3% M-o-M, while all-important core inflation was just 0.2% M-o-M, its lowest reading since June. Both were up 3% Y-o-Y. Shelter inflation is finally falling, tariffs remain hard to discern, and services (think…
The Friday File: The nation with the passport that allows entry into the most destinations visa-free is Singapore at 193 out of a possible 227. South Korea follows at 190, then Japan at 189. The US is tied for 37th…
A recent study trying to mimic what the Business Cycle Dating Committee looks at when determining if the economy is in recession finds 22 states, representing 33% of GDP, in or at high risk of recession. Their problems are due…