A recent study trying to mimic what the Business Cycle Dating Committee looks at when determining if the economy is in recession finds 22 states, representing 33% of GDP, in or at high risk of recession. Their problems are due…
While we haven’t seen large numbers of layoffs, monthly hiring is at its lowest level since 6/15, and at the lowest percentage since 3/13. Similarly, job postings on Indeed.com are at their lowest since 2/21. When workers are asked if…
While Chinese exports to the US slid 17% during Jan-Sept, they increased 6.1% elsewhere. However, China still faces serious economic issues amid hardball US trade talks. Q-o-Q 25Q3 GDP growth was 4.8%, but was 5.2% in 25Q2, and 5.4% in…
If there was a common thread in last week’s Fed Beige Book, a purely anecdotal and quantitative report put out eight times/year, it was the declining fortunes of the formerly hot US travel/leisure/hospitality sector. To wit, the decline in international…
The Friday File: Kids are now growing up fast and are probably already asking ChatGPT to tell them a bedtime story. As for old fashioned smartphones, 8% of parents report that their children under five have their own smartphone. That…
The US economy has, to date, performed substantially better than many expected despite tariffs and many other unorthodox policies and interventions coming from DC. There are numerous reasons why. They include falling interest rates, strong corporate earnings, a belief that…
25Q3 bank earnings were a stunning $50 billion, up 20% Y-o-Y! All divisions did well, including wealth management, lending, trading and M&A/investment banking, suggesting a healthy economy. But not so fast. The drivers were big firm borrowing for M&A, and…
Earlier this week, the 2025 economics Nobel prize was awarded to American-Israeli Joel Mokyr, Frenchman Philippe Aghion, and Canadian Peter Howitt of Brown University. Mokyr won it by explaining the conditions that enable economic growth. Aghion/Howitt explained how innovation and…
While some forecast 25Q3 growth as high as 3.8%, this is undoubtedly due to booming EV sales ahead of the $7,500 tax credit that ended 9/30 and probably a sizable decline in net imports due to tariffs. The negative ADP…
The Friday File: To be more inclusive and representative of their customers, Maxwell House is temporarily changing its name, for the first time in its 133-year history, to Maxwell Apartment. Ideally, the new limited-edition containers should hold less and cost…