Beijing is closely watching the current war. They are watching our tactics/strategy, naval power, how much we are running down our ordinance stocks, and critically, how much pain we (think gas prices) are willing to tolerate. If we buckle and…
The US economy has shown remarkable resilience despite tariff shocks, the rise of AI and minimal job growth, reduced population growth due to immigration policies, weak consumer sentiment and a prolonged government shutdown. Despite all this, real GDP is growing…
Since the start of the Iran engagement, 30-year mortgage rates have meaningfully risen. Surging oil prices and uncertainty about the duration/ramifications of the hostilities on inflation/growth/unemployment etc. have put upward pressure on overall interest rates and have also significantly increased…
The Federal Reserve is finding itself in an increasingly unpleasant spot. Their preferred measure of inflation, Core PCE, rang in at 3.1% Y-o-Y in January, up from 3% in December, well above the Fed 2% target and pre-Iran conflict inflationary…
The Friday File: Last year the percentage of Americans who read at least one book was just 60%. However, the median number of books read by all Americans was two, and the average was eight. These numbers look so good…
Homeowners in the bottom 20% of the credit score distribution (think FICO) pay 25% more for homeowner’s insurance than the top 20%. The higher prices aren’t the result of deferred maintenance or disputed claims. Rather, insurers expect lower-credit homeowners to…
While talk of stagflation, high inflation and high unemployment, is suddenly pervasive after last week’s lousy jobs report and rising oil prices, I remain skeptical. Oil futures for 3/27 are trading at $68/bbl. Last month, 3/27 contracts were trading at…
February existing home sales rose 1.7% M-o-M to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.09 million. But Y-o-Y sales fell for the third time in four months, not a sign of a recovering market. For some perspective, outside of the…
February non-farm payrolls sank by 92,000, December and January were collectively revised down by 69,000, and the unemployment rate troublingly rose to 4.4%, despite the labor force participation rate falling to 62%, the lowest since 12/21. Since May, employment growth…
The Friday File: President Trump’s most recent State of the Union address was the longest ever at 108 minutes, breaking the previous record of 100 minutes set last year by President Trump, while his 2025 SOTU broke the previous record…