While mortgage debt is up $2.88 trillion from the Housing Bubble peak, as a percentage of GDP it’s 44.6%. During the Housing Bubble, that percentage exceeded 70%. Better yet, the last time mortgage debt as a percentage of GDP was…
Last year, American, Delta, United, and Southwest posted a combined $12 billion passenger operating loss but still recorded $13.5 billion in net profits. While freight helped, loyalty programs that bind customers to airlines and airline credit cards were primarily why.…
The BLS annual preliminary payroll benchmark revisions, based on state government unemployment insurance data, showed a huge 911,000 downward revision to employment growth for the year ending 3/25. This means the economy was slowing before Trump entered office, and that…
August net job growth was dismal at 22,000, with June and July revised down by 21,000 combined. In CY24, job growth averaged 167,000/month, but in the four months since Liberation Day it’s averaged 26,750/month. Of 511,000 private jobs created in…
The Friday File: The state that falls asleep, on average, the earliest is HI at 11:06pm, followed by AZ and NM at 11:12, and ME at 11:13. DC goes to bed the latest, at 11:56, with NY at 11:53, PR…
OPEC+ has been generally increasing oil production to gain share after reducing supply earlier. However, with global GDP growth slowing, there’s concern demand will not materialize, inventories will grow, and higher production will reduce prices. To date however, inventories have…
Since 1980, there have been nine Fed easing cycles. Across those cycles, the Fed funds rate reduction averaged 232bps and the reduction in the 10-year Treasury averaged 72bps. Around a recession, cuts averaged 400bps and the decline in the 10yr-Treasury…
Last week, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index came in soft and the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence report showed household job market anxieties w/heightened inflation concerns. The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index and Philadelphia Fed Services Index showed stagflationary tendencies, but…
The Friday File: While Scottie Scheffler has five wins in 19 events this year including two majors, he’s been so consistent it’s staggering. Last weekend marked the 14th straight tournament he has finished in the top 10! Nicklaus was the…
Traditionally new homes have almost always been more expensive than existing homes. However, in July, the median existing home sold for $422,400 while the median new home sold for $403,800. Inventory of new homes at 9.2 months vastly exceeds existing…