At the 3/2000 peak of the dotcom boom, the largest stock in the S&P 500 was Microsoft. It was worth $560 billion and accounted for 4.4% of the index. Today it’s Nvidia, worth $4.25 trillion and 7.6% of the index.…
Yesterday, President Trump moved to fire Fed Governor Cook. Despite the questionable legality involved, and the attendant uncertainty of her status, watch the value of the dollar, interest rates, the term premium, and the US sovereign credit rating. The concern…
July new home sales were 652,000 seasonally adjusted and annualized, down 0.6% M-o-M and 8.2% Y-o-Y. Worse, it now takes builders 2.9 months to make a sale upon completion, the longest duration in over three years. Making things worse, the…
The Friday File: Contrary to what the calendar says (9/22/25), fall commences next Tuesday, 8/26/25, as that is when Starbucks will again be serving their famous Pumpkin Spice Latte. If you think this is early for the rollout, think again.…
The critical thing about Powell’s talk tomorrow is tone. Can he really offer dovish rate guidance? Equities are at/near record highs, credit spreads are near their tightest ever, the dollar at its lowest level in years, unemployment is just 4.2%,…
Pre-2015, wage growth was consistently higher for high-income workers than low-income ones. Starting in 2015, that began to reverse, and during Covid that new relationship was turbo-charged. Income growth for the bottom fifth of the population at times was twice…
During the year ending 7/25, spending increased 2% for the top third of households, those earning over $120,000/year, 1% for the middle third of households, and was zero, or zilch for the bottom third of households, those earning roughly $50,000/year…
After steadily falling since mid-2022, inflation is again rising. Last month, Y-o-Y import prices rose at their fastest pace this year, Y-o-Y wholesale prices rose at the fastest pace in three years, and Y-o-Y wholesale vegetable prices rose 39% last…
The Friday File: In 2025, Americans are expected to spend $157 billion on their pets, 62% more than in 2019. $67.1 billion will be spent on pet food/treats, $41.4 billion on veterinary care and products, $34.3 billion on supplies, live…
For those clamoring for a rate cut, be careful what you ask for. What matters most to the economy is the 10-year Treasury. The Fed, outside of quantitative easing/tightening, only controls the short end of the curve. Last September, when…