Econ70

Student loans began accruing interest on 9/1/23 and loan payments are due starting 10/1/23, clipping GDP by one-fifth of a point. Additionally, the odds of a 10/1/23 government closure are rising, and that would knock off an astounding one-fifth of…

August payrolls grew by 187,000, and June and July were revised sharply down and now show growth of 105,000 and 157,000, respectively, the first three-month sub-200,000 stretch since mid-2019. The unemployment rate rose from 3.5% to 3.8%, and wage growth…

The Friday File: In 2000, avocado imports to the U.S. totaled 170 million pounds and avocado consumption was 2 pounds/person. By 2021, imports totaled 2.5 billion pounds, an increase of roughly 1,400%, as consumption rose to 8 pounds/person. With domestic…

The speculation that increased issuance of Treasuries explains the recent increase in bond yields is unfounded, because since 1980 the correlation between changes in debt supply and Treasury yields is zero. The rise is more likely due to rising yields…

On 7/31/23 there were a seasonally adjusted 8.8 million job openings, down from 9.2 million on 6/30/23, revised down from an initial 9.6 million suggesting rapid cooling, and 11.4 million Y-o-Y. This is the lowest level since 3/21, but still…

Including the Fed rate hiking cycle of 1968, there have been seven rate hiking cycles through 2008/09 that ended in a recession. Over the course of those cycles, it’s taken on average 22 months from the first hike to the…

While job growth remains strong, the labor market is softening; as evidence, continuing claims for unemployment are steadily rising. At the beginning of the year, they were 300,000 below the weekly average of the years 2018, 2019, and 2022. They…

The Friday File: the amount of capsaicin in Texas Pete is 750 Scoville units, Crystal is 800, and Tabasco Chipotle is 2,000. Huy Fong Sriracha comes in at 2,200, Tapatio is a warmer 3,000, Cholua is a bit hotter at…

Because the national minimum wage has not been raised in 14 years, it is becoming increasingly irrelevant. In 2010, 1.8 million workers were earning exactly $7.25/hour and another 2.5 million were earning less, like tipped staff. In 2022, just 141,000…

While house prices declined from $410,200 in 6/23 to $406,700 in 7/23, don’t be fooled, that’s the highest July price ever and is up from $403,800 in 7/22. Similarly, while inventory ticked up from 1.08 months in 6/23 to 1.11…