Econ70

August CPI rose a sharp 0.6% M-o-M, largely attributable to costlier gasoline. Core inflation rose 0.3% M-o-M, its highest reading since May, but just 4.3% Y-o-Y, its lowest reading since 9/21 and its 10th decline in 11 months. However, core…

The resumption of student loan payments on 10/1/23 is likely to knock 0.25 percentage points off quarterly annualized GDP. A government closure will knock 0.2 percentage points per week off quarterly annualized GDP, and a UAW strike against all three…

Pricey Payments High rates have pushed up the average interest and principal payment for new borrowers using a 30-year mortgage to $2,306. Similarly, two years ago 5% of new borrowers had a payment over $3,000/month, today it’s almost 25%. Moreover,…

While gasoline prices have increased somewhat since May as the price of WTI crude has risen by 13%, diesel prices are up over 40% over the same period. It’s because in May Saudi Arabia, Russia, and others in OPEC+ surprised…

The Friday File: During 1H23, AMC Theaters grossed $2.3 billion. Ticket sales generated $1.3 billion, other categories including advertising, auditorium rental, arcade games, etc. generated $200 million, and food and beverage spawned $817 million. Amazingly, food and beverage costs were…

Since 2020, the employed foreign-born population of the U.S. has increased by 9.9%. It took until 21Q4 for this population to return to where it was pre-Covid. As for the native-born population, it is now 0.7% higher than it was…

Student loans began accruing interest on 9/1/23 and loan payments are due starting 10/1/23, clipping GDP by one-fifth of a point. Additionally, the odds of a 10/1/23 government closure are rising, and that would knock off an astounding one-fifth of…

August payrolls grew by 187,000, and June and July were revised sharply down and now show growth of 105,000 and 157,000, respectively, the first three-month sub-200,000 stretch since mid-2019. The unemployment rate rose from 3.5% to 3.8%, and wage growth…

The Friday File: In 2000, avocado imports to the U.S. totaled 170 million pounds and avocado consumption was 2 pounds/person. By 2021, imports totaled 2.5 billion pounds, an increase of roughly 1,400%, as consumption rose to 8 pounds/person. With domestic…

The speculation that increased issuance of Treasuries explains the recent increase in bond yields is unfounded, because since 1980 the correlation between changes in debt supply and Treasury yields is zero. The rise is more likely due to rising yields…