Econ70

The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index sank a whopping 6.9 points in August, its biggest one-month decline since 8/21, when inflation was beginning its dreadful climb. This time, the concern is labor markets. 18.3% of respondents consider “jobs hard to…

Inflation fundamentals are stellar. Strip out lagging rents, and the remaining 93% of the CPI has slowed to a 1.7% Y-o-Y rate and is down to a 1% Y-o-Y rate over the six months to August. Moreover, the CPI on…

August existing home sales came in at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 3.86 million. This is down 2.5% M-o-M, 4.2% Y-o-Y, and marks the 36th straight month of year-over-year sales declines. August is the third straight month of sub-4…

The Friday File: Yesterday, Shohei Ohtani became the first baseball player ever to hit at least 50 home runs and steal 50 bases in one season. Only six players (including Ohtani) are in the 40/40 club. Ohtani has stellar power,…

While corporate profit growth has, of late, been strong, only one-third of the growth has come from rising revenues. Corporate profits are being primarily driven by intense cost-cutting. We know this because unit labor cost growth has been zero Y-o-Y,…

In a move largely unexpected just days ago, the Fed cut the Fed funds rate by 50bps! This is an overt acknowledgement that the inflation battle is over, and that rising unemployment is now public enemy #1. While the Fed…

What is both amazing and absolutely terrifying about the current housing market is how unaffordable it is. The combination of ever rising prices and stubbornly high rates has reduced first-time housing affordability to its worst level since the mid-1980s. But…

While economists struggle to agree on many policies, there are some they coalesce around. When asked if giving the President more direct influence over monetary policy would lead to substantially worse monetary policy decisions, 94% agreed. Similarly, 95% agreed that…

The Friday File: Invented in 1962 by Bill Winkelbach, a part owner of the dismally bad 1-13 1962 Oakland Raiders, fantasy football is now played by an estimated 55 million Americans, double the number that watch a NFL game. Winkelbach…

For the first time since 2019, median inflation-adjusted household income rose, to $80,610 in 2023, up from 2022’s $77,540. This brings median income almost back to the 2019 peak of $81,210. The rise was the result of a tight labor…