Econ70

In a brilliant move to increase transparency and worker productivity, the IRS will now allow payment of income taxes with Bitcoin, joining other nations including El Salvador. This move will cement the US as a crypto powerhouse, bring riches to…

The Fed’s favorite inflation measure, core PCE, came in slightly hot at 0.4% in February, up from 0.3% in January. Y-o-Y inflation was also elevated at 2.8%, up from 2.7% M-o-M. Worse, over the last six months annualized inflation is…

The Friday File: In the early 1990s there were about 9,000 bank robberies/year. By the early 2000s, robberies were about 8,000/year. By 2010, they slid to 6,000/year, and in 2023 robberies numbered just 1,362. Why the huge decline? Less money…

On 12/31/24, US households held $38 trillion in public firm equities, 1.7 times disposable income. During the late 1960s, during the Dotcom Boom, and as recently as 2020, it reached but never exceeded 1.2. A decline in equity prices, now…

Cross-border fund flows are going to meaningfully shift as President Trump tries to reduce or eliminate trade deficits. Because the trade deficit is offset by the capital account, a lower deficit means fewer dollars being poured back into stateside physical…

Despite Secretary Lutnick’s recent comments, Social Security is a key source of income for many! Half of seniors get over half their income from SS, 25% of recipients get 90% or more. For those with a bachelor’s degree, SS provides…

After a significant rise in CEO optimism in the months following the November election, CEO confidence fell 20% in early March compared to January and is now at its lowest level since spring 2020. Making things worse, CEO forecasts for…

The Friday File: The odds of correctly picking all 63 games in the men’s/women’s NCAA basketball tournament, assuming each team has 50% chance of winning each game, is 1 in 9,223,372,063,854,775,808, or 1 in 9.2 quintillion. There aren’t that many…

In 1991, US net imports of crude oil and refined petroleum products averaged six million bbl/day. In 2000, net imports were 10 million bbl/day, and they peaked in 2006 at 12.5 million bbl/day. Then everything reversed. In 2010, imports declined…

The Fed left interest rates unchanged at today’s meeting, but there were tariff-related adjustments. Forecasted 2025 GDP growth slid from 2.1% to 1.7%, and 2026 growth from 2% to 1.8%. Expected 2025 core inflation rose from 2.5% to 2.8%, but…