Econ70
Usually, last Wednesday’s stellar CPI numbers would have resulted in melting Treasury yields, but due to tariffs the report was utterly ignored. That said, M-o-M CPI fell 0.1%, the first decline since 6/24, and core CPI rose 0.1%, the smallest…
Consumer sentiment in early April continued its tailspin after a brief rise in December. Sentiment plunged 11% and like last month’s decline, was pervasive across age, income, education, location, and political affiliation. Expectations for business conditions, personal finances, income, inflation,…
The Friday File: During CY2023, the number of table egg laying hens averaged 315 million. In CY2024, due to Avian Flu the number averaged 307 million. In 2/2025 the number was just 291 million. Since 2023, the number of egg…
Yesterday’s 9.52% S&P 500 increase was the third largest since WWII. The largest boost was an 11.58% rise on 10/13/08 followed by a 10.79% updraft on 10/28/08. Both jumps occurred during the Housing Bust. The fourth biggest rise was on…
The recent steepening of the yield curve and the astounding and quick rise in 10-year and 30-year Treasury rates suggest several all-bad possibilities. Is there concern that a recession could strain federal government resources? Is China selling Treasuries? Is everyone…
While “Drill Baby Drill” is the mantra, crying in their beer may be the reality. OPEC has recently reopened the spigots boosting supply, pushing down oil prices. Moreover, the tariff announcement has triggered fears of trade wars which would reduce…
Imports are 11% of GDP, and GDP is $30 trillion, making imports $3.3 trillion. As it now stands, the average tariff on imports is 24%. That results in $792 billion in tariffs. But there will of course be behavioral changes…
The Friday File: On Tuesday, Senator Corey Booker (D-NJ) gave the longest Senate speech ever: 25 hours and four minutes. This broke the previous record of 24 hours and 18 minutes set by Senator Thurmond in 1957 while filibustering the…
Tariff totals Trump 1.0 boosted tariffs from 1.2% to 3.2%. Yesterday, he boosted the average tariff on US imported goods to 24%, higher than the disastrous 1930 Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, and international trade is proportionally 3x larger than then. The…
Earlier today, President Trump imposed tariffs on the vast majority of imports entering the US. Retaliation from Canada, China, the EU, and other nations is now guaranteed. This trade war will reduce trade, raise prices, increase unemployment, and weaken economic…