Econ70

The CBO recently forecast that if added interest is included, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act passed by the House will, if it becomes law, increase the national debt by $3 trillion above baseline through 2034. Many have criticized the…

CY2025 looks to grow meekly for many reasons. First, fiscal policy is contractionary primarily due to required repayment of student loans, but also the likely removal of green energy tax credits. Second, tariffs are increasing uncertainty which reduces capex. Third,…

Despite lousy atmospherics, net May job growth was a decent 139,000. But the report wasn’t as strong as the headline. The labor force participation rate slid to 62.4% from 62.6%. Had it remained unchanged, the unemployment rate would have hit…

The Friday File: The James Webb Telescope just discovered the most distant galaxy from Earth, MoMz14. It is just 13.53 billion light years away. It’s also the earliest formed galaxy, coming just 280 million years after the Big Bang, cosmically…

The Fed Beige Book, which comes out every six weeks, is troubling. In January, all 12 districts were growing. In March, four were growing, six were flat and two were contracting. In April, five districts were growing, three were flat…

Cracks are beginning to appear in the heretofore strong labor market. Initial jobless claims have been steadily rising since the start of the year, and for the week of 5/24/25 were 240,000, the third highest level since 10/12/24. Much more…

The arrival of food delivery apps has changed restaurants in profound ways. First, location is no advantage as restaurants now compete across much larger geographic areas, horizontal competition. In addition, platforms charge restaurants (and consumers) assorted commissions and delivery fees…

Last week, two courts ruled, for very different reasons, that President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs are illegal. One decision has been frozen by an appellate court, the other stayed by the judge that wrote the opinion as the Administration appeals,…

The Friday File: The longest straight line walk in the world starts in Liberia, and goes through Ivory Coast, Ghana, Burkina Faso, Niger, Libya, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Iraq, Iran, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and then China. The length of the walk…

The tax and spending bill recently passed by the House will, according to the CBO, increase the national debt by $3.3 trillion through 2034. However, the bill isn’t fiscally expansionary. This is because the sum of the tax cut extensions,…