Econ70

With data for 17Q1 now official, Australia just enjoyed its 103rd consecutive quarter without a recession, the casual definition of which is two consecutive quarters of negative growth. That ties Australia with the Netherlands for second place in world history.…

The Revolutionary War commenced on 4/19/1775 at Lexington and Concord, MA and effectively ended with the surrender of the British by General Cornwallis at Yorktown, VA on 10/19/1781. During the war 6,800 Americans were killed in action and another 17,000…

The Friday file: Global alcohol consumption peaked in 2013 at 67 billion gallons. Last year, consumption declined to 66 billion gallons. The decline is pervasive. Per capita German and US consumption has been steadily declining for over 20 years; consumption…

The third and final estimate of 17Q1 GDP growth came in Thursday morning at 1.4%, a month ago the second estimate was 1.2% and two months ago the first estimate was just 0.8%; quite a difference. Three months after 17Q1…

Since at least 1/1/13, every $10 increase or decrease in the price of crude oil has resulted in an increase or decrease of 185 oil rigs across the US. Moreover, the impact is quite quick. This means if the recent…

With inflation rates and inflation expectations declining and the yield curve flattening, the Fed may find it more difficult than they thought to raise rates by one-quarter of one percent this coming September. If that’s the case, the Fed could…

While May housing starts rose 2.9% compared to April, 8.9% Y-o-Y, and 12.2% YTD, sales were weak in 16Q1 making comparisons easy. Critically, the median new home price surged 16.5% Y-o-Y to $345,800 while the average jumped 16.1% Y-o-Y to…

The Friday File: While the accounting is very dodgy, Uber’s revenues are up spectacularly, from $1 billion in 16Q1 to $3.4 billion in 17Q1, and gross bookings are up from $3.8 billion in 16Q1 to $7.5 billion in 17Q1. However,…

With the unemployment rate at a 16-year low, faster growth requires getting people to work who are currently unwilling. To entice more women, targeted parental leave should be offered. For the elderly, reduce their income taxes by two percent for…