Econ70

The stock market is signaling a soft landing, but the bond market is unequivocally predicting a recession. Similarly, manufacturing has been in recession for close to a year, but services are doing fine. Lastly, hard economic data such as construction…

While actors are believed to earn great sums, the vast majority don’t. 71% of actors earn less than $40,000/year versus 50% of working Americans. 14% of actors earn $40,000-$80,000/year versus 31% of Americans. 7% of actors, compared to 11% of…

On 3/31/23, 23.3% of home mortgages had a rate below 3%, 38% had a rate between 3%-4%, 19.9% had a rate between 4%-5%, and 18.8% enjoyed a rate over 5%. Equivalently, 61.3% of mortgages were below 4%, and 81.2% were…

The Friday File: For a $3.25 cup of coffee, rent is $1.13, staff/wages are $0.81, tax is $0.49, profit is $0.32, paper products such as the cup and napkins cost $0.23, milk costs $0.13, and coffee also costs $0.13, or…

With home prices generally reaccelerating and interest rates again testing recent highs, housing affordability is deteriorating. As of 6/22/23, with the 30-year mortgage rate at 6.67% it took $2,258, a record high and nearly 35.7% of median household income, to…

June inflation fell to 3% Y-o-Y from 4% in May, and from a peak of 9.1% in 6/22. While core inflation rose only 4.8% Y-o-Y, it’s more than double the Fed’s 2% target. Moreover, the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge, service…

While equities have so far enjoyed a banner 2023, firms that recently went public are struggling. Class of 2020 IPOs are down an average of 34% from their initial listing price, 2021 IPOs are down 46%, and 2022 IPOs are…

June payroll growth deflated to 209,000, the lowest level since 12/20, April and May employment was revised down 110,000, and it was the first time in over a year that growth fell short of market expectations. Yet unemployment fell and…

The Friday File: In 1966, U.S. per capita caloric sweetener consumption was 115 lbs/year, and as late as 1982 it was under 120 lbs/year. Consumption then rose quickly, peaking in 1999 at 154 lbs/year. It’s since markedly declined and has…

With race-based affirmative action now illegal, colleges who wish to maintain diversity have opportunities. They may wish to consider spending much more on outreach to underprivileged communities to boost already low application rates. They can also offer plans that give…