Econ70

The Friday File: The President with the shortest term was William Henry Harrison; 31 days. James Garfield follows, his term lasted just 199 days. By comparison, Zachary Taylor, with a term of 491 days, was a long-term tenant at the…

While April existing home sales were down 2.3% M-o-M and up just 1.6% compared to 4/16, it’s due to limited inventory. While inventories rose 7.2% M-o-M, April marks the 23rd consecutive month of Y-o-Y inventory declines! As for new home…

Household financial health is modestly improving. In 2016, 70% of Americans said they were living comfortably/doing OK, up from 69% in 2015 and 62% in 2013. Similarly, the percentage with no retirement savings has declined from 31% in 2014 to…

After quickly rising by a strong 5% on a trade-weighted basis after Trump’s election win, the dollar has fully retreated and is back where it was before the election. 10-year bond yields have given up almost half of their gains…

Given that the Fed has begun to raise short-term rates, it’s necessary that the Fed also raise long-term rates. And doing that requires shrinking its balance sheet because the trillions there are almost all long-dated securities. By holding those securities,…

The Friday File: Last year, the top 100 grossing musical acts generated $4.45 billion in concert tour revenue. Adele placed 5th with $168 million. Guns N’ Roses was fourth with $188 million, Coldplay was third with $241 million, and Beyonce…

In 17Q1, household debt rose by $149 billion and now totals $12.73 trillion, surpassing the previous peak of $12.68 trillion set in 08Q3, 8.5 years ago. Mortgage debt currently equals $8.63 trillion or 68% of all household debt. In 08Q3,…

On average, each $1 billion of construction spending results in about 6,000 full-time one-year equivalent construction jobs and roughly another 6,000 non-construction jobs. Naturally, different types of construction create different employment numbers. That said, assuming the wall costs $21 billion,…

April housing starts were OK. Single family starts were up 8.8% Y-o-Y, 7.4% YTD, and, somewhat surprisingly, have been flat since 10/16. Importantly, trends have emerged. Comparing 15Q1 – peak house size – to today, median and average house sizes…

Consumer spending is fine! Retail sales, that is sales at stores, restaurants, and importantly online retailers, rose 0.4% in April, the best gain in three months and sales in March were meaningfully upwardly revised. However, April non-store retail sales (which…