Econ70

The non-partisan Congressional Budget Office forecasts that the recently passed deficit-financed tax cuts and spending increases will boost the national debt by $1.9 trillion through 2027. Thus, debt held by the public will rise from 78% today to 96.2% of…

As house prices relentlessly rise, the percentage of conventional loans this past winter going to borrowers with debt-to-income (DTI) ratios above 45% hit 20%, almost triple what the percentage was 12 months ago, but less than the housing boom peak…

Since 1970 there have been 12 midterm elections. The only time the party holding the White House gained seats was Clinton 1998 and Bush 2002. Each had an approval rating above 60% and they only gained 4 and 8 seats…

While March net job growth of just 103,000 was slightly disappointing, payback for last month’s great weather was inevitable. Importantly, monthly average job growth YTD is 202,000, very strong this late in the business cycle. The unemployment rate was unchanged,…

The Friday File: After a 9% jump to 1.46 billion in 2017, France, for the first time ever, consumed more hamburgers than jambons-beurres, whose sales totaled 1.22 billion. The split baguette with ham and butter had been the best seller…

Despite being a train wreck heading into 2017, Europe is enjoying an economic upswing. The eurozone grew 2.5% in 2017, its fastest rate in a decade, and on par with US growth. This surprisingly strong progress has pushed the euro…

The currently proposed but not yet implemented trade tariffs by China on the US and vice versa will probably reduce US GDP by 0.15 of a percentage point and boost inflation by 0.1 of a percentage point, impacts small enough…

While it’s often reported that US median income has barely budged in inflation-adjusted terms since 1979, new data show median income up 51% since 1979 to $73,200. Three methodological improvements are why. First, household size is shrinking. Second, the new…

Orders for durable goods rose a solid 3.1% in February, the biggest gain since 1/17. Better yet, orders for machinery, which slumped in November, December, and January, rose 1.8% in February, the best increase since 9/17 and the highest level…

The Friday File: With Amazon now selling prescription drugs, the FDA will, for the first time, allow Amazon to cross-sell. For example, “If you like Vicodin then you’ll probably love Fentanyl”. The FDA is also going to permit those buying…