Econ70

The flattening yield curve, or the declining differential between long-term and short-term rates, is giving many heartburn. Since 1970, every time it’s inverted (and short rates have exceeded long rates), a recession has followed. Are we near a recession? Very…

After declining 0.25% in December, 0.68% in January, and 0.23% in February, inflation-adjusted retail sales jumped 0.62% in March and are now, solidly back at trend growth. Moreover, because those months are volatile, looking at Y-o-Y growth is preferable. Y-o-Y…

April’s employment numbers were good. The unemployment rate fell to 3.9%, its best rate since 12/00, and the broadest measure of unemployment fell to 7.8%, best since 12/01. Yet wage growth was unchanged from earlier months, easing fears of inflation.…

The US has set a mid-May deadline to complete NAFTA negotiations with Mexico and Canada. On 5/22, $50 billion in tariffs can be imposed on Chinese imports, and on 6/1, steel and aluminum tariffs will be levied on the EU…

The Friday File: American Pharoah, the 2015 winner of the 141st running of the Kentucky Derby, the first Triple Crown winner since Affirmed in 1978, and one of only 12 such winners, is popular. The now six-year-old stallion has impregnated…

While the Fed didn’t raise rates in the meeting that concluded yesterday, the big news is the Fed won’t overreact (which means raise rates much faster) if inflation modestly exceeds 2%. That is, the Fed remains on track to raise…

The government argues consumers will be hurt by an AT&T/Time Warner merger because competition will decline as AT&T will exercise monopoly control over content such as HBO, CNN, Turner, etc. Is the government kidding? Almost half of Americans get their…

Despite being on its heels for ages, inflation is strengthening. Y-o-Y economy-wide inflation ticked up to 1.85% in 18Q1, a hairsbreadth away from its four-year peak of 1.96% registered in 17Q1. In addition, it’s meaningfully declined only once since 15Q3.…

Real GDP in 18Q1 grew at an annualized rate of 2.3%, beating expectations of 2%. This was the best Q1 growth since 2015 and keeps us on track for growth of at least 2.75% in 2018. It slid from 2.9%…

The Friday File: Earlier this week, the Duchess of Cambridge gave birth to a baby boy who is fifth in line to the British throne. The cost for the royal birth, in the top-notch Lindo Wing of St. Mary’s Hospital…