Econ70

Last spring, inflation, or deflation, as measured by the CPI was falling at -4%/quarter and producer prices were declining at a rate of -8%/year, yet no lasting deflationary pressures appeared. The same holds true now for inflation. Come fall, schools…

Many commentators suggest that since the Roaring 1920s followed the Spanish Influenza pandemic of 1918, the Roaring 2020s will follow Covid-19. Wrong! Back then the median age in the US was 28, today it’s 38. Then, debt-to-GDP was 10%, now…

In a sign of how strong demand is and weak supply is, the retail inventories-to-sales ratio is an astonishingly low 1.07, its lowest level since record-keeping began in 1/92. It’s also much lower than the previous low of 1.34 set…

The Friday File: When the moon is full and passes closest to Earth, it’s called a supermoon. The technical term is perigee syzygy. On 5/25/21, perigee (when the moon is closest to Earth) was at 9:50pm EDT; the moon was…

In normal recessions, durable goods get hit, then reverse and lead the recovery. It’s because this sector is $2 trillion, 10% of GDP, pays well, has large multipliers, and you can make up for many delayed big-ticket purchases. This recovery…

The Fed is currently beginning a long road to monetary policy normalization. The Fed will first talk of tapering, and in early 2022 begin tapering its purchases of Treasuries and MBS. Next, in mid-2022 talk of raising rates will commence,…

Prior to Covid-19, 5 million Americans were unemployed, and the unemployment rate was 3.5%. Today, we are 7.6 million jobs short compared to before the recession. Together, that sums to 12.6 million. However, today 9.3 million Americans are unemployed. That…

In 21Q1, non-farm hourly compensation rose at an inflation-inducing annualized rate of 7.2%. However, in 21Q1, non-farm labor productivity grew at an annualized rate of 5.5%. Thus, unit labor costs increased by a very manageable annualized rate of 1.7%. Thinking…

The Friday File: An Italian artist just had an immaterial sculpture, an artwork of literally nothing, auctioned for $18,300. In February, the same artist exhibited another immaterial sculpture in Milan demarcated by a square of tape on a walkway. Since,…

China’s 2020 population hit 1.41 billion. While up slightly from 1.34 billion in 2010, it has peaked and will now start falling. China’s working age population has been declining since 2011. The percentage of the population over 60 has risen…