Month: November 2025

Dating back to the early 1960s and the last ten bull markets, bulls are propelled 40% by rising P/E multiples and 60% from earnings growth. Bear markets, 80% due to declining multiples and 20% from declining earnings, animal spirits are…

There’s now talk of 50-year mortgages. Bad idea. First, with the median age of first-time buyers 40, borrowers would likely never pay off their mortgage. Second, the difference between a 10-year mortgage and a 30-year mortgage is 65bps, the gap…

First celebrated as Armistice Day on 11/11/1919 to commemorate the end of WWI, it wasn’t until 1938 that it became a national holiday, and in 1954 was renamed Veterans Day to honor all US veterans living or deceased. Today there…

Private sector October employment rose 42,000, the first rise since July, but the data remains troubling. Healthcare/education added 26,000, and trade/transportation/utilities added 47,000, both non-cyclical sectors with little discretionary spending. But professional/business lost 15,000, and leisure/hospitality shed 6,000, both highly…

The Friday File: This season, Inter Miami’s Lionel Messi, last year’s league MVP, earned guaranteed compensation of $20.4 million. That puts Inter Miami’s total compensation at #1 in the MLS at $49 million. LAFC is second at just $30.1 million.…

Should the current closure last three more weeks, it would total two months. While the first weeks of the closure had limited impact, the longer it lasts, the more severe the weekly pain. By 12/1/25, the hit, albeit temporary, to…

The recent large layoffs by Amazon, Target, UPS and others aren’t necessarily alarming. Perspective is critical. The US labor force numbers almost 171 million. Total job separations exceed five million/month, including a million/month who get fired, and slightly over three…

Seven months into Trump’s Tough Tariffs, the impact has been largely anticlimactic. Inflation is up, but not much due to the tariffs being implemented slowly, effective tariff rates being lower than statutory rates, inventory being worked down, and retailers eating…