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Based on my calculations, credit default swaps are trading as if Greece has a 70% chance of defaulting, 50% for Ireland, 40% for Portugal and 30% for Spain. Both Greece and Ireland are paying over 80% of their export revenues…
1) Workweek didn’t move; it’s stuck at 34.3 hours for the 3rd straight month. History says hours lead bodies so as a leading indicator there isn’t much evidence of improving labor demand 2) State & local governments are downsizing with…
Today’s decline in the unemployment rate is deceptive. It shows is that people have stopped looking for jobs. The Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate declined to 64.3% last month and is way off its all time high of 67.3% of…
The Irish election in March ― I don’t think this is on the radar screen. The point worth making is that if the opposition party wins, and presses for a debt restructuring, the story isn’t going to end there. The…
Every penny at the pumps drains $1.5 billion out of household cash flow. Gas prices at the pumps are $3.15/gallon, but back in September it was closer to $2.70/gallon. This is nothing more than a $60 billion annualized drag on…
The biggest myth being promulgated today is that the economy must be doing better because state & local government revenues are on the rise. Dude! That’s not the economy! It’s called tax increases. In fact, 23 states have boosted taxes…
I want to take the opportunity and wish you all the best for 2011. To health, happiness and prosperity — especially in risk adjusted terms.
10 From a historical standpoint, the yield on the S&P 500 (2%) is very low. This smacks of a market top and underscores the point that the market is too optimistic; investors are willing to forgo yield because they assume…
Our annual deficit is 10% of GDP. A deficit of 3% is sustainable (trust me) and 2% of the deficit will melt away as the economy revives; leaving a deficit of 5%. Had the Bush tax cuts been repealed that…
There will probably a nasty spending fight in ’11 complicated by the need to raise the federal debt limit to avoid a default; a vote many new Republican have indicated they would not make. Republicans say the debt limit vote…