The Bowtie Economist's Daily Dose of 70-Word Wisdom


Sperm Shortage

08/04/2017

The Friday File: Between 1973 and 2011, sperm concentration in males in North America, Europe, Australia, and New Zealand (where more and better data are available) declined by between 52% and 59%, depending on the method of measurement; don’t ask.…

Disturbing Delinquencies

08/03/2017

Despite a roaring labor market, the credit cycle is turning. After peaking at 4.85% in 09Q2, consumer loan delinquency rates steadily declined to 2% and remained there from 15Q1 through 16Q1. Since then, they have steadily risen and are now…

Vehicle Volume

08/02/2017

After two straight record-breaking years of 17.5 million units in 2015 and 17.6 million units in 2016, car sales are retrenching. Prior to July, car sales had declined in four of the last five months, but improved to a seasonally…

Carrying Cash

08/01/2017

In 2015, cash was used in 32% of all consumer transactions, followed closely by debit cards at 27%, credit cards at 21%, electronic payments at 11%, checks at 6% and other at 3%. Between 2012 and 2015, cash usage plummeted…

Taxing Travails

07/31/2017

The Senate Republican failure to pass a “skinny” Obamacare replacement means a revenue loss of probably $150 billion over a decade. Having already nixed the border adjustment tax means the loss of an additional $1 trillion over a decade. Absent…

Knotty Nemesis

07/28/2017

The Friday File: At last, engineers have figured out how shoelace bows come undone! There are two forces at work. The to-and-fro movement of the leg and the impact of the shoe hitting the ground. Turns out neither force is…

Dwelling Difference

07/27/2017

While June housing starts were up 8.3% M-o-M, they were up only 2.1% Y-o-Y, and 6.0% YTD. More interestingly, YTD multifamily starts are flat, while single-family starts are up 10.75%, and they are more costly than multifamily. The 10.75% rise…

Vanishing Volatility

07/26/2017

While the VIX, which measures stock market volatility (also known as the Wall Street “fear gauge”), is at quarter-century lows, so what. Corporate profits are solid, inflation is miniscule, alternative investments aren’t very compelling and it appears central banks will…

Employment Exceptions

07/25/2017

Rhode Island is the latest state to finally see total employment exceed its pre-recession level. That leaves just Alabama, Connecticut, Illinois, Michigan, Mississippi, New Mexico, Ohio, and Wyoming with employment levels in 6/17 below what they were in 2008 or…

Debt Debate

07/24/2017

The upcoming required legislative increase in the debt ceiling may be a nasty battle. Republicans will require Democratic support, which will be legislatively costly, all but guaranteeing a bill that won’t be “clean” or void of concessions. To that end,…

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