The global oil market, based solely on the value of oil produced and thus excluding options, futures and the like, is $1.7 trillion/year, more than all other raw material markets combined. Gold is next at $170 billion/year, one-tenth the size…
The destruction of private wealth and public infrastructure caused by hurricanes Harvey and Irma is roughly $200 billion. The impact on GDP growth will critically depend on how fast refineries in Houston and tourism in Florida recover, along with how…
Median household income rose 3.2% in 2016 to $59,039, finally surpassing the previous inflation-adjusted record of $58,665 set in 1999, yes 1999! In addition, the male-female wage gap narrowed from 79.6% in 2015, to 80.5%, and the poverty rate declined…
While durable goods orders fell in 6.8% in July, ex-transportation orders (which exclude aircraft orders as they are profoundly mercurial), were up 0.5% M-o-M and 5.6% Y-o-Y. Better yet, Y-o-Y ex-transportation orders are growing at their best pace since 12Q1.…
The Friday File: In 2016, the Tooth Fairy left an average of $4.66, up from $3.91 in 2015. In total, tooth fairies left $290.6 million! First teeth are especially valuable, bringing in an average of $5.72. The tooth fairy visits…
Since 1977, there have been 11 federal government-wide shutdowns. Nine times those shutdowns have lasted three days or less, once, in 1995, it lasted six days. The shutdown in 2013 lasted the longest, 16 days, but most Defense Department workers…
The US economy grew at a strong 3% during 17Q2, up from an earlier estimate of 2.6%. The improvement was the result of significantly stronger consumer spending, and this is very important, private investment! As the labor market tightens and…
Employers added just 156,000 jobs in August, and June and July were collectively downwardly revised 41,000. Yet job creation is averaging 185,000/month since June, and 176,000 YTD; excellent numbers this late in the cycle. More puzzling, wage growth has been…
The Friday File: From 1976 to 2000, Americans used about 20 days of vacation/year. Since then, the number has steadily declined, hitting a low of 16 in 2014. In 2015, it rose to 16.2 and last year: 16.8! 44% of…
Data released today were a perfect microcosm of the US economy. On one hand, job growth is excellent, with involuntary weekly terminations at lows last seen 40 years ago. Moreover, real consumer spending growth is solid at 2.7% and the…