Econ70

When the President and Senate are Republican, and the House Democratic, the S&P 500 averages a 13.7% return. When everything is reversed, which may happen at this midterm, returns average 13.6%. When the President is a Democrat and the Capitol…

The Friday File: 100 years ago today, Egyptologist Howard Carter and his team discovered the tomb of Golden Pharaoh Tutankhamun in the Valley of the Kings. It took Carter and his crew almost a decade to catalog the more than…

The latest reading of October U.S. manufacturing activity came in at 50.2, its lowest level since May 2020. Moreover, the index has been steadily declining since peaking at 64.70 in March 2021. A reading above 50 indicated activity is expanding,…

While the press release from today’s Fed meeting clearly indicated that the Fed will reduce the rate at which it raises rates, which was mistakenly interpreted by markets as a bullish sign, Powell went to great lengths in his press…

After rising monthly since 2/12 and peaking in 3/22 with an appreciate rate of 2.1%/month, home prices have now declined for two consecutive months. Moreover, the most recent August decline of 0.86% M-o-M is the largest decrease since 2/10. On…

As you watch the 118th baseball World Series, rooting for the right team is critical. The 60-year-old Houston Astros won their only World Series in 2017. That year the S&P 500 rose 21.6%. The Philadelphia Phillies, the oldest continuously run,…

The Friday File: While headline inflation is up 8.2% Y-o-Y and down from 9% in June, candy and chewing gum inflation is skyrocketing. Its currently running at 13.1% Y-o-Y, its highest rate since at least 12/98. Moreover, it’s rising increasingly…

While real GDP grew at an impressive, annualized rate of 2.6% in 22Q3, the details were uninspiring. Net exports were the main growth driver, adding 2.77 points to GDP, government spending also helped adding 0.42 of a point. Inventories were…

The problem facing the Fed is that monetary policy works with long and variable lags. The IMF reports that rate changes have peak impact on GDP after a year, but on inflation after 3-4 years. Other recent research pegs peak…