Econ70
The Fed sees the economy through the lens of a wealth effect stimulating consumer spending. And gains in the stock market have helped achieve that but only 20% of Americans own equity directly. But we all eat and most of…
Despite recent enthusiasm real incomes are under pressure. With the 0.5% hike in the December U.S. CPI, real wages fell 0.4% and have fallen in 3 of the 4 last four months. The pace over the past 6 months is…
In the past 3 years, the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet has expanded by $1.5 trillion yet nominal GDP has managed to rise by only $500 billion. Moreover, the U.S. public debt has exploded by about $5 trillion over that same…
Measures of investor sentiment are irrational―the bear share in the latest Investor Intelligence poll is down to 19.1% from 20.5% last week. The bull camp is all the way up to 57.3% from 54.5%. Back on Labor Day, the Investor…
From the recently released Decennial Census we see that 7 of the 9 states (AK FL NH NV SD TN TX WA WY) that do not levy an income-tax grew faster than the national average. And, the other two ND…
If profits are booming why aren’t jobs plentiful? Well, from what I can tell the bulk of earnings this cycle were derived offshore and since U.S. companies get “dinged” on earnings they remit home what happens is that the foreign-derived…
In December’s employment Report, temp agency employment rose 16k, up now for five months in a row, & ended up accounting for about 30% of the total employment growth in the economy last year. Sadly, what was once a good…
Based on my calculations, credit default swaps are trading as if Greece has a 70% chance of defaulting, 50% for Ireland, 40% for Portugal and 30% for Spain. Both Greece and Ireland are paying over 80% of their export revenues…
1) Workweek didn’t move; it’s stuck at 34.3 hours for the 3rd straight month. History says hours lead bodies so as a leading indicator there isn’t much evidence of improving labor demand 2) State & local governments are downsizing with…
Today’s decline in the unemployment rate is deceptive. It shows is that people have stopped looking for jobs. The Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate declined to 64.3% last month and is way off its all time high of 67.3% of…