Econ70

While crude prices decline, pump prices are up. It’s because in summer we drive slightly more and refiners must switch to summer-blends which evaporate slower and cost more. Moreover, because there are many different summer fuel-blends required by the EPA,…

Oil has suddenly fallen from $60/bbl to $52/bbl, near the multiyear low of $45/bbl set in Q1/15. This is because: Iran plans to increase exports once sanctions are lifted, OPEC is increasing production, US oil-rig counts rose for the first…

Household spending should remain healthy for four reasons. First, household net worth hit a record $84.9 trillion in Q1/15, up $1.6 trillion from Q4/14 and the ratio of household net worth/personal disposable income (PDI) is at its highest level since…

Given the huge victory handed to Greek PM Tsipras, he can’t accept a proposal that is largely similar to the one already rejected. He must show the Greeks one that is better. Europe doesn’t wish to make a much improved…

The Friday File: Americans will spend $6.6 billion on food and retail purchases celebrating July 4th, up 6% from 2014. 64% of Americans will attend a cookout/barbecue and probably eat at least one of the 150 million hot dogs sold…

Today’s labor numbers were OK. First-time claims for unemployment remain very low at 281,000, employment growth is solid averaging 208,000/month YTD, and unemployment is just 5.3% with full employment less than a year away. But, wage growth remains weak averaging…

The unfolding Greek tragedy won’t directly affect the US as US banks hold almost no Greek debt, but may impact us indirectly. If things get volatile in Europe, the ECB will increase bond purchases, putting downward pressure on interest rates…

While single family housing starts are up 6.7% year-to-date and single family permits are up 7.5% year-to-date, new home sales are up a staggering 24%! This means that what’s being built is changing. Specifically relatively fewer custom homes and more…

The ECB decision to cap the emergency lending program to Greece rather than take more dramatic steps, like demanding higher amounts of collateral for loans or reducing the size of the emergency loans, keeps Greek banks sufficiently alive such that…

The Friday File: Congratulations to Taylor Swift, a 25 year-old music monopolist extraordinaire. In a battle over royalties during a free trial period for listeners of Apple Music, Apple blinked and will now pay artists despite receiving no revenue. Her…