Econ70

Despite volatile equities, slowing global growth, a stronger dollar, trade disputes, and rising wages, corporate earnings look good. While 18Q4 earnings growth estimates have fallen from 20.1% to 14% over the past four months, the current ratio of negative to…

Chinese exports to the US fell 3.5% Y-o-Y in December, while global Chinese exports declined 4.4% Y-o-Y in December. Worse, imports fell 7.6% Y-o-Y in December, suggesting domestic Chinese demand is skidding. In another sign of a Chinese slowdown, the…

The Friday File: Earlier this week, John Bogle, a crusader for investor’s rights and the man who virtually single-handedly invented index funds, died at 89. His relentless focus on cutting investment fees at his firm (Vanguard), and the reduction in…

The US government directly employs 2 million civilians. Active-duty military number 1.3 million, and the USPS employs 500,000. There are also 1.3 million grant employees, persons paid through a federal grant and roughly 4 million contract employees. The total, 9.1…

By announcing he won’t schedule debate on any bills to reopen the government Trump won’t sign, McConnell has empowered the President and reduced pressure on his caucus that would inevitably come from voting on such bills. To wit, the latest…

While unionization has always been low in the US compared to other advanced democracies, trends are similar. Back in 1980, the unionization rate in OECD nations was about 50%; it’s now 18%. In the US, the rate has fallen from…

While wages of men and women with at least a HS diploma are similar early in life, they diverge dramatically with age. The gap peaks at about age 50 with men earning about $76,000/year and women earning about $49,000/year. However,…

The Friday File: After a glorious run of several years as the world’s most valuable company at over $1 trillion, Apple has stumbled and lost a staggering $350 billion in value over the past few months on lousy iPhone sales.…

Pending home sales have declined Y-o-Y for 11 straight months, existing sales peaked in 11/17, existing inventory has been rising Y-o-Y for four straight months, and appreciation has been slowing for six straight months. Starts have been flat since 11/16,…

As recently as 2010, cheap oil was great for the US as oil production was low. However, due to fracking, US production has doubled since 2010 to 11.6 million bbl/day. Lower prices reduce corporate investment which leads to reduced employment.…