Econ70

Postal Processing In 2005, the USPS handled 25 billion pieces of first-class mail and periodicals, and 25 billion pieces of marketing mail, which includes flyers, circulars, advertising, newsletters, bulletins, catalogs, and small parcels. Since then, first-class volume has fallen by…

Through 4/15/20, positive Covid-19 tests were 20% of all tests, but testing was very limited. From 4/15/20-6/15/20 as testing jumped from 150,000/day to 500,000/day the percentage of positives steadily declined to 4%. However, from mid-June through mid-July infection rates doubled…

Herculean Housing Homebuilder sentiment is at its highest level since 1998, starts are up 23.4% Y-o-Y, all-important single-family starts are up 7.4% Y-o-Y, and overall starts are up 4.7% YTD! At the current rate of 1.496 million, starts are nearing…

The Friday File: Following an event-filled 2019/20 term for the Supreme Court, approval of the Court is at a decade high. Fully 58% of Americans approve of the job being done. The last time the Court was as highly regarded…

20Q3 GDP growth estimates currently range from 10% to 25%. Importantly, GDP is reported at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). If 20Q3 comes in at a SAAR of 15% (my best estimate) that’s equal to a quarterly rise of…

F&F Fee Last week, the FHFA, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac’s (F&F) regulator, introduced a fee only for borrowers refinancing a residential mortgage. The fee raised refi rates by 1/8th of a point. While the FHFA offered an inexplicable rationale…

First-time unemployment claims fell to 963,000 for the week ending 8/8/20, the first time they have been under a million in 20 weeks. Moreover, continuing claims declined to 15.5 million and like first-time claims have been steadily falling. Despite the…

Regrettably, America’s three largest trading partners will be of no meaningful help in recovering from this recession. Canada’s economy will recover unusually slowly because of very weak energy prices. Mexico’s economy will mend particularly slowly due to a complete lack…

The Friday File: This past July 4th, Joey Chestnut broke his own record by eating 75 hot dogs and buns in 10 minutes. Miki Sudo set a woman’s record of 48.5. Professor James Smoglia recently showed that 83 is the…

The UN estimates global population will peak at 10.9 billion persons in 2100. New projections from the University of Washington see the population peaking at 10 billion in 2060 and then declining to 8.9 billion by 2100. The much lower…