Econ70

Despite a lack of clarity about who the election winners will be, we can be certain that large fiscal stimulus is a loser. Market hopes of unified government leading to trillions in aid have been largely dashed as divided government…

This is the 59th US presidential election. The first and only one to be held in an odd numbered year saw George Washington defeat John Adams in 1789. Adams, Jefferson, and Madison followed. Those were candidates! The Adams’ were the…

Since 1860, a Republican has occupied the White House for 95 years, a Democrat 65. The annualized S&P 500 return during the 65 Democratic years of control was 8.4%, 8.3% when the President was a Republican, a statistically insignificant difference.…

The Friday File: The percentage of US adults planning to wear a Halloween costume this year is 25%, down from 31% last year. By generation, 46% of Gen Z’ers will dress up, compared to 50% last year. Among Millennials, 43%…

After declining by a record 9%, or 31.4% if annualized in 20Q2, 20Q3 GDP has come in at a simply stunning 7.4%, or 33.1% if annualized! At this point, the US economy is 3.5% smaller than it was on 12/31/19,…

Over long periods of time, I suspect income inequality will systematically worsen. When first entering the labor force, workers generally know little and get paid poorly. However, labor productivity of educated, skilled workers steadily rises due to technological improvements. Thus,…

In 12Q1, corporate profits surged and hit $1.88 trillion. Real corporate profits have never been higher since, despite recently lower tax rates. It’s because of the business cycle. Early in the cycle, when unemployment is high, wages stagnate and capital…

September new home sales came in at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 959,000. While slightly below street expectations, starts are amazingly up 16.9% YTD. But Y-o-Y growth is declining, inventory is up slightly to 3.6 months from August all-time low…

The Friday File: Comparing the average asking price of a dog in the UK between March and September 2020 to the same period in 2019, the price rose from £888 ($1,161) to £1,883 ($2,462), an increase of 112%! By breed,…