Archive for April 2024

March retail sales rose a strong 0.7% M-o-M, February sales were revised up by 0.3% M-o-M, and Y-o-Y sales rose a respectable 4%. However, inflation-adjusted, retail sales have been flat since 3/21, as we shift away from goods to services. Thus, it’s total consumer spending that matters! The big winner, online sales. They rose 0.4%…

In 1862, President Abraham Lincoln signed a revenue-raising measure to help pay for the costs associated with the Civil War. The measure created a Commissioner of Internal Revenue and the nation’s first income tax. The tax was 3% for income between $600 and $10,000 and 5% for income above $10,000. Heeding public opposition, Congress cut…

The Friday file: The world’s thinnest watch is, for the 9th time, a Bulgari, this time the Bulgari Octo Finissimo Ultra, at 1.7 millimeters (0.0669 inches). This breaks the previous 7/22 record of 1.75mm set by the RM UP-01 Ferrari, which broke the previous record of 1.8mm set by the Octo Finissimo Ultra in 3/22.…

March CPI rose 3.5% Y-o-Y. This is unfortunately the 10th month in a row that headline CPI has been trendless and rangebound between 3.1% and 3.7%. The lowest reading since the 2021 inflationary rise was 3.1% back in 6/23. Moreover, core CPI, which since peaking in 9/22 has fallen every month except 3/23, rose from…

In 1989, the Fed’s last rate hike was in 6/89 and 13 months later a recession began. In 2000, the lag between the Fed’s last hike and the recession was 10 months. In 2006, the lag was 18 months. And in 2018, the lag was 14 months. The median and mean are both about 14…

U.S. employers added a very strong 303,000 net jobs in March, the best level since 5/23, and there were upward revisions to January and February of 22,000. Better yet, the workweek rose, the labor force participation rate increased from 62.5% to 62.7%, and wage growth slid from 4.28% in February to 4.14% in March. Strong…

The Friday File: To watch Iowa’s Caitlin Clark is to watch, by far, the greatest women’s college basketball player ever. She’s an inspiring and sublime generational talent whose scoring, passing, and rebounding ability defy words. In her most recent Elite Eight victory over LSU, she contributed directly to 80% of Iowa’s field goals, mind-numbing! Her…

Compared to the 2006 Housing Boom peak, home prices are currently 71% higher. However, after accounting for inflation, home prices are just 10% higher. Thought of slightly differently, nominal home prices are exactly double what they were in 2004. That works out to a compound annual growth rate of 3.6%. While housing prices went crazy…

On 4/3/24, a drawing for a $1.09 billion Powerball jackpot will occur, the fifth largest. While the chances of winning are one in 292 million, Americans spent over $100 billion in 2022 buying lotto tickets and it’s mostly the poor. In the poorest 1% of zip codes, the average adult spends about $600/year or 5%…