Archive for November 2023

As of 9/23, the percentage of home mortgage holders with negative equity is just 383,000 or 0.7%, less than half the percentage prior to Covid and prior to the Housing Bust. The percentage peaked in 2009 at 30%. Currently, the city with the highest percentage of underwater mortgage holders is Austin at 2.1%, because prices…

For the week ending 11/4/23, initial unemployment claims were a very low 217,000, barely above decade lows. However, continuing unemployment claims came in at 1,834,000 and are up about 250,000 from the decade lows set last year. This suggests that while layoffs are very low, those unemployed and looking for a job are finding it…

In 1938, Congress formally made 11/11 Veterans Day. It pays tribute to all American veterans both living and deceased, but especially honors those who are alive. The state with the highest percentage of veterans is Alaska at 8.8% of the population. 16 million Americans served in WWII, 933,000 in Korea, 5.9 million in Vietnam, and…

A wage-price spiral looks increasingly unlikely. Y-o-Y wage growth has steadily decelerated from a recent peak of 5.1% in 22Q2 to now 4.3%, the lowest reading since 21Q4. Moreover, the index has slowed four out of the last five quarters. Relatedly, in 23Q3 labor productivity rose at an annualized rate of 4.7%, the fastest pace…

Despite substantial talk of office space to residential apartment conversions, in 2022 developers created just 3,575 apartment units that way, less than 1% of all new apartments built. In 2021, the number of such conversions was about 4,300. In 2020, the number peaked at roughly 6,600. For the five years ending 2019, the number of…

The average cost of owning and operating a new car in 2023 is $12,182, up significantly from $10,728 in 2022. Annual operating costs consisting of fuel and maintenance are $3,864/year, while ownership costs of depreciation, finance charges, insurance and fees total $8,318/year, based on driving 15,000 miles/year. Compared to 2022, depreciation rose by $882/year, finance…

Net job growth in October was a respectable 150,000; that said that’s the second lowest level since 12/20 and August and September were collectively revised down 101,000. Additionally, unemployment ticked up to 3.9%, the highest rate since 1/22 and up from a low of 3.4% in April, which is slightly disconcerting. Lastly, both the labor…

The Friday File: Simone Biles has won a record 33 World Championship and Olympic medals, in second is Larisa Latynina with 32. Her 26 World Championship medals is six more than #2 Svetlana Khorkina. As for Olympic Medals, the leader is Latynina with 18, followed by Vera Caslavska with 11, and Ludmilla Tourischeva with 9.…

23Q3 GDP was up 4.9% on an annualized basis with 2.7 percentage points of the increase due to very strong consumer spending. This looks unsustainable because real disposable income has fallen four straight months. That said, spending is strong partly because savings have fallen from an already low 4.9% of disposable income in June, to…

Unsurprisingly, the Fed left the Fed funds rate unchanged today but signaled a willingness to possibly raise it 25bps in the future, another mildly hawkish pause. However, by adding the word financial, the only meaningful change to the press release compared to the last meeting, to the sentence “Tighter financial and credit conditions for households…