Month: March 2016

The Friday File: When looking to hire/marry the best candidate from a large pool, the solution is to interview and reject the first 36.8% of all candidates and then accept the next candidate that is better than any interviewed. Doing…

Despite low interest rates, the medium-term fiscal outlook is deteriorating. Last year debt-to-GDP in 2025 was projected to be 81%, it’s now 91%, up from 75.6% today. This is because realistically, revenues are expected to remain flat while spending rises…

Earlier today, the Fed announced, unsurprisingly, that it wasn’t raising short-term rates. What was mildly surprising is that despite pretty decent domestic growth, the Fed now expects to raise rates by just half a percentage point in 2016. In December,…

Household liabilities peaked in Q3/08 at $14.3 trillion. They then declined, bottoming at $13.3 trillion in Q3/12. They have steadily risen since and are now $14.2 trillion. As a percentage of GDP, household liabilities peaked at 98.2% of GDP in…

Last Thursday, the ECB unleashed numerous measures to boost lending and inflation in Europe. The ECB pushed rates further into negative territory, from -0.3% to -0.4%, boosted the size of their bond purchases by €20 billion/month, and will now PAY…

The Friday File: A German passport allows bearers to visit 177 countries visa-free, more than any other nation. Sweden follows at 176, followed by Finland, France, Italy, Spain and the UK all at 175. In 8th position are Belgium, Denmark,…

Among those 16 and over in the US who earned money in 2014, earning $10,000 put you in the 20th percentile of those with earned income. If you earned $27,000, you were in the 50th percentile while those earning $50,000…

Postal service employment peaked at 909,500 in 4/99. It then began a slow but steady decline, but temporarily peaked at 781,600 in December 2007, just before the start of the Great Recession. It then rapidly fell, hitting a trough of…

This year’s speaker at the Builder & Developer Luncheon, Dr. Elliot Eisenberg, offered a lively take on the current economy. Read more here.

In 2016, China is aiming for GDP growth of 6.5% to 6.7%. While that’s way too high, China will make it happen. That means increasing the money supply and lending by a dangerously high 13% each, having a budget deficit…