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February’s net job growth was a shockingly strong 273,000, with upward revisions totaling 85,000 for December and January. Add an increase in the workweek and in pay of 0.3% each, and all looks well. But the survey only includes the…
The chances of a recession have meaningfully risen over the weekend and are now 50%. Driving the rise: an inevitable European recession, soaring Italian fatalities resulting in a rich western democracy locking down all of its population, and a sudden…
Oil prices are in freefall; down 50% since 1/1/20. Global demand, which historically annually grows by 1,000,000 bbl/day, is now expected to decline by 100,000 bbl/day in 2020. Making matters worse, because Russia and Saudi Arabia were unable to agree…
The Friday File: There have been a total of 24 James Bond movies, and six actors have been 007. In a recent poll, the most popular James Bond was Sean Connery with 26% of the vote. Daniel Craig was a…
Monetary policy becomes toothless as rates approach 0%, but fiscal policy can shine. The government can cheaply borrow to: increase unemployment benefits to those recently laid-off, offer paid sick-leave to those without it who have Covid-19, give zero-interest loans to…
While interest rates on Treasuries have hit all-time lows, mortgage rates have fallen, but not as much. There are at least three reasons. First, if rates keep falling, prepayments will increase, hurting mortgage investors. Second, lower rates suggest the economy…
Last week financial markets weren’t expecting any rate cuts, but this morning the Fed did an emergency inter-meeting half-point rate cut! This should reduce tightening financial conditions we are seeing, and boost confidence. As rates are higher here than in…
In January 2018, 70% of workers between 22 and 37 had been with their employer 13 months or more. In 2002 that percentage was 69%. Similarly, in 1/18 28.8% of workers aged 25 to 34 had been with the same…
The Friday File: Last Saturday, 34-year old Alexander Ovechkin of the Washington Capitals scored his 700th NHL goal, placing him 8th on the all-time list. More amazingly, he is currently 3rd in goal scoring this year, and at his current…
59% of Americans said they are financially better off now than they were a year ago, 20% said they were worse off, and 21% said things have not changed. 59% is the highest positive response rate ever recorded by Gallup,…