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Excluding currencies, the average daily trading volume on the active front-month (most current) contract for the world’s most traded single commodity is $31.1, billion/day or $8.1 trillion/year, (one-third of US GDP) for WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude oil. In close…

US employers created just 199,000 jobs in December. Worse, the unemployment rate plunged from 4.2% to 3.9%, suggesting full employment is quickly approaching. Not surprisingly, M-o-M wage growth was up a strong 0.6%, Y-o-Y it’s up 4.7%. With full employment…

The Friday File: In the spirit of public service, income from illegal activities such as money from dealing illegal drugs, the fair market value of stolen property, and hacked Bitcoin accounts (unless returned during the same calendar year) must be…

The US is about 5 million houses underbuilt. Here are some of the reasons why: Covid-19 has increased the desirability of homeownership. Millennials are entering peak homebuying age so demand will remain elevated for years. Anti-development attitudes make it very…

While the ISM’s manufacturing activity index declined to 58.7 in December from 61.1 in November, with any reading over 50 signaling growth, factories remain busy. A key reason for the decline, the supplier delivery time subindex declined to 64.9 in…

From October to November, the average rate at which credit-card debt charge-offs rose from -0.90% to 0.95%, and the delinquency rate climbed from 0.8% to 0.82%. While these rates are half what they were pre Covid-19, they are no longer…

Despite Omicron, I expect 21Q4 GDP to come in at very strong 6.5%. However, the Omicron Variant will reduce 22Q1 GDP growth to about 2.5% from about 5.5% pre-Omicron, a decline one percentage point smaller than the four-percentage point dip…

I want to take this opportunity to thank you all for your continued interest in my daily economics blog. You all enrich my life in many ways, and I am deeply appreciative. I wish you and yours the best year…

Turkey’s plan to stabilize its rapidly depreciating currency ideally requires the lira to not depreciate vs. the dollar. If that happens amidst rampant inflation, Turkish exports will rise in price and lose share to suddenly cheaper foreign alternatives, hammering exports.…

The latest Case-Shiller National HPI showed a 19.1% Y-o-Y increase in home prices, down from 19.5% last month, and 19.8% the month before. The 19.1% reading remains the 4th highest ever. The latest Y-o-Y reading of the Federal Housing Finance…