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The only other time the Fed shrank its balance sheet was in 2018, and rates declined, the opposite of what should have happened. Here is maybe why. As the Fed shrinks its balance sheet it sells bonds and acquires cash…

In 1980, global GDP was $11.2 trillion. The EU accounted for 29%, the US 25%, Japan 10%, China 3%, and the rest of the world 33%. By 2021, global GDP had grown to $85 trillion. The US was tops, again…

January employment grew by a strong 467,000. Moreover, December’s employment was revised up from 199,000 to 510,000 and November’s from 249,000 to 647,000, suggesting Omicron had little impact. Better yet, the labor force participation rate rose from 61.9% to 62.2%…

The Friday File: Among adult Americans, 40% set a morning alarm but do not hit snooze. It is, however, highly correlated with age. Among those 18-24 just 25% don’t hit snooze. Amongst persons 25-34, the percentage of non-snoozers is 32%.…

While the US national debt just surpassed $30 trillion, the public debt, on which we pay interest, is $24 trillion. The other $6 trillion is Social Security and other such intragovernmental debt owed ourselves that Congress can alter. Moreover, it’s…

Of all food/beverage sales in retail stores, 21% and rising due to inflation and the loss of stimulus money, are store brands, which are less expensive. 63% of frozen seafood sales are store brands, followed by frozen vegetables at 50%.…

The US economy picked up steam in 21Q4, growing at a strong 6.9% annualized rate, up from a 2.3% annualized rate in 21Q3, GDP’s best quarterly showing since 2000Q2. While consumer spending grew 3.3% in the quarter, inventory growth was…

Because investment in physical plant as a percent of GDP has fallen over time, the impact of higher interest rates now primarily works through new home construction and net exports. Thus, higher rates may now be necessary than before to…

The Friday File: While bigger northern nations win more Olympic medals, a fairer comparison is per capita medal wins. Looking at results from the 2018 winter Olympics in Pyeongchang this way, Liechtenstein, with one medal, placed first with a population/medal…

Inflation is usually a monetary phenomenon and while the American Rescue Plan included huge dollars, it alone has not caused inflation. Rather, aggregate demand has been very strong, and supply-chains have broken down. In time the private sector should fix…