According to the UN, global population will reach 8 billion on 11/15/22. While birth rates are falling, it expects the number of humans to peak at 10.4 billion in the mid-2080s, down 500 million compared to the 2019 projection primarily…
The Y-o-Y increase in June CPI is 9.1%, up from May’s 8.6%, the worst reading since 11/81’s 9.6%. Core CPI is behaving arguably better, it’s up 5.9% Y-o-Y and has been falling since March, but worryingly M-o-M numbers are getting…
GDP in 22Q1 was -1.6% annualized, 22Q2 looks to come in at -2% annualized. Yet job growth in 22H1 was superb, averaging 456K/month. How can this be? Are firms hoarding workers despite falling sales because bosses expect a mild downturn…
June net job growth was much stronger than expected, and well above a sustainable pace at 372,000. Moreover, the labor force participation dipped by a tenth to 62.2%. The Fed will raise the Fed funds rate by another 75bps at…
The Friday File: In a recent poll 81% of Americans reported that they believe in God. This is down from 87% in 2017, 92% in 2011, is the lowest percentage ever, and is well down from the 94% to 98%…
In early 1972, with the fed funds rate at 3%, the Fed began raising rates to quash inflation. By 11/73, the fed funds rate exceeded 10% and the economy entered a deep recession. The Fed continued raising rates ultimately pushing…
The US economy can currently best be described as a Schrodinger Economy. On one hand, 22Q1 GDP was -1.6%, 22Q2 is likely to come in at no better than 0%, real incomes are declining, the yield curve is flat, equities…
The Friday File: This July 4th 84% of the US population will be celebrating, unchanged from last year, and way up from just 76% in 2020. Independence fever was highest in 2013 when 90% celebrated. The baseline is 88%. 5%…
CPI inflation is 8.5%. Market-based inflation expectations (MBIE) one year from now are 4.8%, MBIE over the five-year period starting a year from now are 2.32%, and MBIE over the five-year period starting in five years are just 2.26%. These…