If the debt limit is not increased, the amount of tax increases or spending cuts required to stay under the existing debt limit this year would be $1.5 trillion and would be $14 trillion over the next decade. Relatedly, in…
The Index of Leading Economic indicators fell again in December, this time by 1%, the tenth consecutive monthly decline, with the monthly declines generally worsening over time. Moreover, with data going back to 1970, the last seven times the index…
Home price declines in December are unsurprising, what is surprising is the size of the decline we are seeing. For the four years ending 12/21, the December price declines from the peak in that same year ranged from -7% in…
In 1965, the average workweek for production and nonsupervisory workers was 38.6 hours, close to the mythical 40-hour workweek. It’s declined ever since, we are wealthier. In 1975 it was 36 hours, in 1985 it fell to 34.9, in 1995…
The Friday File: As recently as 2004, 90% of US households had a landline phone. By 2008 it was 80%, by late 2010 it was 70%, and by mid-2013 it was 60%. In mid-2015, landlines were in just 50% of…
Recent data have eliminated any doubts that the U.S. manufacturing is in a recession, with the Empire State manufacturing index now at recessionary levels. Moreover, nationwide industrial and manufacturing production have both declined by over 0.5% for two months in…
In 2022 China’s population declined from 1.413 billion, to 1.412 billion, a decline of a million. This is the first since a famine in the early 1960s. This time, however, the decline will continue for the rest of the century.…
Economists are now measuring inflation by excluding food and energy, which gets to core-inflation, and then subtracting goods, which results in core services inflation, and then shelter. The reason for removing these items is to rid the inflation data of…
While Friday’s Treasury announcement that the debt limit will be breached on 1/19/23 is concerning, the Treasury will again employ “extraordinary measures” to keep the government functioning through early June. If the ceiling isn’t raised by then, watch out. With…
The Friday File: The Percentage of Americans over 21 participating in Dry January is 15% down from 19% last year. The decline from 2022 is probably due to there being fewer drinkers. The share of Millennials – the generation that…