The Friday File: The singular of agenda in Latin is agendum, just like candelabra, stamina, insignia, and trivia have undergone grammatical change to become singular in English. This fate is (regrettably) befalling data and will eventually befall memoranda and strata.…
To regain control of oil prices that have fallen 33% since mid-June, yesterday OPEC+ announced a 2 million bbl/day production cut. However, OPEC+ is currently underproducing by several million bbl/day. Thus, the cut will probably reduce actual production by about…
Yesterday, the S&P 500 rose more than 2%, a good day by all measures. That said, this was the 27th time this calendar year that equities have performed this well or better, yet the Index remains down 20% YTD. Do…
Uninsured losses from Hurricane Ian probably total $40-$50 billion including infrastructure damage and cleanup costs. Insured losses are another $65 billion. Lost wages and corporate profits due to closed airports and destroyed facilities probably add another $15-$20 billion in Florida…
Traditionally, economists preferred looking at core inflation, which excludes food and energy vs. headline inflation as core is much less volatile. However, since Covid in 3/20, it’s become wildly volatile. Where in the past Core PCE inflation was bounded by…
The Friday File: Earlier this week, NASA sent a bus-size spacecraft travelling at over 14,000/mph directly into a 525-foot-wide asteroid called Dimorphos, seven million miles away from Earth. Sounds tricky. The aim, to see if the crash alters the asteroids’…
Mortgage rates are getting hit twice over. On 9/27/22, the 10-year Treasury briefly hit 4%, up from 1.52% on 12/31/21, the fastest rise since 1981, as inflation fears worsen. Additionally, the spread between the rising 10-year Treasury and the 30-year…
While some talk of a UK currency crisis, concern is misplaced. Currency crises occur in nations with floating exchange rates for one of two reasons, either when the nation in question has large debts denominated in foreign currency or when…
The Dow Jones Transportation Average, which tracks 20 large US firms including trucking, airlines, and railroads fell 12% month-to-date, double the decline of the S&P 500. Declines in transportation suggest less need for goods, materials and travel, unsurprising given high…
Of all IPOs on US exchanges last year, 87% are trading below their IPO price compared to the 23% fall in the S&P 500 this year and the 31% decline in the Nasdaq Composite. This is the worst year for…