Since 1976, there have been 20 government closures. The average duration of the closures is eight days, but the median is just four days as many closures were three days or less. That said, contained within the last four closures…
While mergers and acquisition activity is wildly profitable for investment banks, earning them $13.1 billion in 23H1 fees, an influential 2011 Harvard Business Review article showed roughly 80% of merger and acquisitions failed to create buyer value. However, a recent…
The Friday File: In 2009, Internet Explorer was the browser boss with a 65% market share, it’s now zero. Firefox was at 31% and today it’s at 3%, Apple’s Safari was at 2% and is now holding at 20%, and…
In early 2021 the Fed said inflation was transitory. That turned out to be true only if transitory is defined as two years, a bit long. Similarly, the Fed told us they expected the Fed funds rate to be 0.625%…
Unsurprisingly, the Fed left Fed funds unchanged but signaled a willingness to possibly raise it 25bps in the future, a hawkish pause. However, it doesn’t matter if the Fed raises rates once more, or not. It stretches credulity to think…
From 2/17 through 2/22, the percentage of pending home sales that fell out of contract declined from 13% to 11%, except for 3/20 and 4/20 when it exceeded 16%. From 3/22 through 9/22, as rates quickly rose, the failure rate…
Prior to the start of the September UAW strike, there were eight work stoppages involving more than a thousand people, the largest of which is the Screen Actors Guild strike involving 160,000 workers. Three of the eight stoppages began in…
The Friday File: Smucker’s Uncrustables, the lunchbox treats first produced in 1995, were introduced to stores in 2000. Sales are expected to hit $800 million in FY2024. Currently, four million of the sandwiches are produced each day in Denver, CO…
August CPI rose a sharp 0.6% M-o-M, largely attributable to costlier gasoline. Core inflation rose 0.3% M-o-M, its highest reading since May, but just 4.3% Y-o-Y, its lowest reading since 9/21 and its 10th decline in 11 months. However, core…
The resumption of student loan payments on 10/1/23 is likely to knock 0.25 percentage points off quarterly annualized GDP. A government closure will knock 0.2 percentage points per week off quarterly annualized GDP, and a UAW strike against all three…