In 2024 and 2023, only 29% of firms in the S&P 500 index beat the index. This lopsidedness means relatively few companies are doing very well, and a majority are performing below average. From 2000-2022, the percentage was about 50%,…
While the LA fires are likely to go down as the costliest climate disaster in US history, and may top $300 billion, 1% of GDP, the national economic impact is likely to be small. Maybe a 0.2% drag in GDP…
December housing starts were a surprisingly strong 1.499 million units seasonally adjusted and annualized, up 51.3% M-o-M. But three things make this number suspect. First, two-thirds of the rise came in the South where hurricanes Helene and Milton did extensive…
The Friday File: After peaking mid-last decade at 91.5%, the percentage of shots saved by goaltenders has steadily declined and last year reached a 19-year low of 90.3%. Players are taking 10% fewer shots, most of which are easy to…
While just a week old, $9 congestion pricing is having the desired effect in NYC. Cars entering NYC south of 60th Street fell 8% compared to the average January workday from 2022-2024. But that small decline has drastically reduced travel…
Looking at a graph of yields on US Treasurys, one is immediately confronted with the fact we are now in the sixth year of the third Treasury Great Bond Bear Market (GBBM) since 1790. The first GBBM was from 1899…
The PCE has, since 2000, been the Fed’s preferred inflation measure. There are several key differences between it and the CPI. The PCE includes things you consume but don’t buy. Thus, healthcare is 16% of the PCE but 7% of…
Net December employment growth blew past expectations with a rise of 256,000 jobs, the largest rise since 3/24. Moreover, the unemployment rate declined to 4.1% and Oct/Nov revisions were insignificant. This is evidence that the labor market has tightened and…
The Friday File: I am frequently asked about books to read so here are a few recommendations that have withstood the test of time. Thinking Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman, The Ascent of Money by Niall Ferguson, World Order…
Since 1874, a period of 151 years, the S&P 500 has averaged a return of 9.4%. The median return is between 0%-10% and the modal return, the return that is most common, is between 10%-15%. For 2025, the consensus predicts…