On 4/30/14 Q1 GDP (which ended a month earlier) was estimated at 0.1%. On 5/29/14 it was revised down to -1.0%, and on 6/25/14, three months after the end of Q1, it was knocked down to -2.9%! The difference between…
On Monday we learned that existing home sales in May jumped 4.9% to a rate of 4.89 million/year, the best pace since last October. Better yet, yesterday we learned that new home sales jumped from a rate of 433,000/year in…
Inflation as measured by the CPI is 2.1%, as measured by personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is 1.6%, below the Fed’s 2% target. Importantly, the Fed uses the PCE to monitor inflation. Historically, the PCE is 0.5% lower than the CPI,…
The Friday File: Dividing the cost of a beer by the minimum wage tells you how much work it takes to buy suds. Amazingly, it takes 12 minutes to afford a beer in Puerto Rico and 18 minutes to buy…
The current fight between book publisher Hachette and Amazon over pricing is one between a cartel (the publishers) and a monopolist (Amazon). Turns out e-books are 40% more profitable for publishers and 40% less remunerative to authors than hardcover books!…
At today’s press conference, Fed Chairwoman Yellen did away with forward guidance. Instead, she suggested that the Fed will rely on an array of lagging economic indicators to set policy. She is signaling that the Fed will keep interest rates…
Across the pond, the UK economy is really picking up. Employment is up sharply, real GDP rose 3.1% in the first quarter, the best growth since 2008, the labor force participation rate is 72.9%, the highest it has been almost…
While expecting Q1 GDP growth to be revised down to an annualized rate of -2% from the current -1%, expect the Fed to keep tapering on autopilot and reduce it by another $10 billion to $35 billion/month at the conclusion…
The Friday File: While 32 teams compete in the World Cup, only a handful have a chance at winning and Team USA isn’t one of them. Brazil, Argentina and Germany are clear favorites with Columbia, Netherlands, Portugal and Uruguay as…
The LA County judge that struck down California’s teacher tenure laws as unconstitutional is following in the footsteps of Brown V. Board of Education. In Brown, the Supreme Court forced all schools in a district to have demographically similar student…