In 2015, Brazil’s economy shrunk by 4% and it will contract 3.5% more in 2016. Moreover, inflation is 10.7% and rising quickly. Yet the central bank didn’t raise rates. This may be because debt service already consumes a whopping 8%…
In today’s post-meeting statement, the Fed is trying to keep their options open and separate signal from noise. If employment and inflation continue to improve, they will raise rates in March. But given the strengthening dollar, widening credit spreads, weakening…
While auto sales hit 17.5 million in 2015, slightly surpassing the prior record set in 2000, the US population is now 12.7% larger! Per capita sales are falling because the percentage of persons with driver’s licenses are declining. The percentage…
Senator Sanders’ proposal of a 1% roundtrip tax on stock trades will raise less revenue than expected, as some trading will migrate to areas with no tax. Moreover, because it increases transaction costs, it will reduce trading and liquidity and…
The Friday File: 5.9% of college students reported smoking marijuana on a daily or near daily (DND) basis, up from 3.7% in 2007. By contrast, only 5.2% of college students smoke cigarettes DND, compared to 19% in 1999, and 4.3%…
Wage and productivity growth are scant, exports, energy, agriculture and mining are weak, the manufacturing sector is in recession and unsurprisingly GDP growth is sluggish. At the same time job growth is good, unemployment is low, and the service sector…
January’s NAHB/Wells Fargo builder confidence index was 60, unchanged from December but down from the recent peak of 65 in October. Moreover, after hitting 57 for the first time since the housing bust in 12/13, the index has moved sideways…
Import prices fell 1.2% in December, led by a 10% decline in petroleum prices. Excluding energy, import prices still fell 0.3%. During CY2015, import prices fell 8.2%; non-fuel imports declined 3.4%. These deflationary numbers, along with the continuing decline in…
The Friday File: Measured by passenger miles, American was the #1 US airline in 2015 with 223 billion revenue-miles, followed by Delta at 210 and United at 209. Ranked by passengers, American carried 201.2 million, Delta 179.4 and Southwest 144.6…
While US exports to China are just 1% of GDP, China’s slowdown still matters. Countries that export raw materials to China (like Australia), that have substantial two-way trade with China (like Japan), or that compete with China in the selling…