With manufacturing weak, services weakening, inflation non-existent, credit spreads widening, the long end of the yield curve not rising, and central banks in Europe, Japan and China all actively easing, the Fed will almost certainly not raise rates in March.…
Despite weak economic growth throughout the developed world, the only institutions trying to fix things are central banks. And while they can do a great deal, they cannot permanently boost economic growth via increased infrastructure spending or by passing tax,…
The Saudis won’t reduce oil production, Iraqi output rose by 900,000 bbl/day last year with output likely to continue to increase in 2016, and Iranian output is set to surge by at least 600,000 bbl/day. Add to that weakening global…
The Friday File: US colleges raised $40.31 billion last year, up 7.6% from 2014. Stanford raised the most; $1.63 billion, followed by Harvard at $1.05 billion, USC at $650 million, UCSF at $610 million and Cornell at $590 million. The…
In 2015, Brazil’s economy shrunk by 4% and it will contract 3.5% more in 2016. Moreover, inflation is 10.7% and rising quickly. Yet the central bank didn’t raise rates. This may be because debt service already consumes a whopping 8%…
In today’s post-meeting statement, the Fed is trying to keep their options open and separate signal from noise. If employment and inflation continue to improve, they will raise rates in March. But given the strengthening dollar, widening credit spreads, weakening…
While auto sales hit 17.5 million in 2015, slightly surpassing the prior record set in 2000, the US population is now 12.7% larger! Per capita sales are falling because the percentage of persons with driver’s licenses are declining. The percentage…
Senator Sanders’ proposal of a 1% roundtrip tax on stock trades will raise less revenue than expected, as some trading will migrate to areas with no tax. Moreover, because it increases transaction costs, it will reduce trading and liquidity and…
The Friday File: 5.9% of college students reported smoking marijuana on a daily or near daily (DND) basis, up from 3.7% in 2007. By contrast, only 5.2% of college students smoke cigarettes DND, compared to 19% in 1999, and 4.3%…
Wage and productivity growth are scant, exports, energy, agriculture and mining are weak, the manufacturing sector is in recession and unsurprisingly GDP growth is sluggish. At the same time job growth is good, unemployment is low, and the service sector…