While 2016 should be marginally better than 2015, there are several serious downside risks. The first is more rapid slowing than expected in China, followed closely by the deteriorating American manufacturing sector which is now in recession. The third is…
The Fed may experience increased dissention this year. It’s because the Fed bank presidents that vote change annually and this year’s group contains three interest rate hawks and one dove, replacing three doves and a hawk. However, it’s the seven…
I want to take this opportunity to thank you all for your interest in my daily economics blog. All of you enrich my life in many ways and I am profoundly appreciative. I wish you and yours the very best…
While forecasts are generally worth less than the paper they are printed on, if you want to try forecasting, read Daniel Kahneman’s Thinking Fast and Slow. A close second is Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner’s Superforecasting: The Art and Science…
Last week, HUD reported that seasonally adjusted annualized new home sales hit 490,000. While up, the last time new home sales were this low before the Great Recession was in 9/91. Moreover, new home sales hit their all-time low of…
Large firms exist because they solve two problems. The first, the ability to internally perform activities more efficiently than smaller firms can, even when markets assist in interfirm product trading. The second, the ability to transform time. Banks take in…
In 2014, 26.3 million natural Christmas trees were purchased, down from 33.0 million in 2013, while 13.9 million manufactured trees were bought, down from 14.7 million in 2013. The average price was $39.50 for natural trees and $63.60 for plastic…
Cash home sales were 32.5% of all transactions in September, down from 35.9% 12 months ago. Cash sales peaked in 1/11 at 46.6% and have historically averaged 25% of sales. At the current rate of improvement, cash transactions should return…
In 2014, federal, state and local government tax collections totaled 26% of US GDP. The average rate across the 34 most highly developed nations is 34.4%. The USA was fourth lowest in the level of taxation, ahead of only South…
The Friday File: According to a Washington University professor, if one were to assume Emperor Palpatine was fiscally conservative, destroying the second Death Star and with it the Galactic government, the Rebels probably caused bond defaults of $500 quintillion. Absent…