Financial conditions are much better than they were just weeks ago. Equities are up, yield spreads are down, the dollar has weakened and the VIX or “fear gauge” is at its lowest level since August. Risk is suddenly appealing. Should…
Mortgage equity withdrawal as a percentage of disposable personal income peaked at 6% in 1985. It then steadily declined, bottoming out at 0% in 1994. It then reversed direction, peaking at 9% during the three years ending June 2006, an…
Since the end of WWII, the average recession has lasted 11.1 months and the average recovery, 58.4 months. The Great Recession was 18 months, the longest recession since 1929. The recovery, now in its 81th month, is the 4th longest…
This past week, for the 54th week in a row, fewer than 300,000 persons sought new unemployment benefits, the best such streak since the 17-month period ending 1/5/74! The current streak just surpassed the 50 week dotcom sub 300,000 streak…
The Friday File: When looking to hire/marry the best candidate from a large pool, the solution is to interview and reject the first 36.8% of all candidates and then accept the next candidate that is better than any interviewed. Doing…
Despite low interest rates, the medium-term fiscal outlook is deteriorating. Last year debt-to-GDP in 2025 was projected to be 81%, it’s now 91%, up from 75.6% today. This is because realistically, revenues are expected to remain flat while spending rises…
Earlier today, the Fed announced, unsurprisingly, that it wasn’t raising short-term rates. What was mildly surprising is that despite pretty decent domestic growth, the Fed now expects to raise rates by just half a percentage point in 2016. In December,…
Household liabilities peaked in Q3/08 at $14.3 trillion. They then declined, bottoming at $13.3 trillion in Q3/12. They have steadily risen since and are now $14.2 trillion. As a percentage of GDP, household liabilities peaked at 98.2% of GDP in…
Last Thursday, the ECB unleashed numerous measures to boost lending and inflation in Europe. The ECB pushed rates further into negative territory, from -0.3% to -0.4%, boosted the size of their bond purchases by €20 billion/month, and will now PAY…
The Friday File: A German passport allows bearers to visit 177 countries visa-free, more than any other nation. Sweden follows at 176, followed by Finland, France, Italy, Spain and the UK all at 175. In 8th position are Belgium, Denmark,…