China’s wish to peg the yuan to a basket of currencies and not just the dollar is an attempt to weaken its currency, but the strengthening dollar makes the task harder. To keep the existing peg, China’s central bank (PBoC)…
Earlier today, the Fed raised the fed funds rate by 0.25%, the first rate rise in almost a decade and seven years to the day since rates first hit zero. The S&P 500 jumped almost 1.5% and long bonds barely…
While the Chinese economy is cooling, Chinese buyers are pouring into US real estate. In 2015, their $30 billion in purchases will equal all purchases by Canadians, Indians, Mexicans, and the British, the next four most popular nationalities. Chinese buyers…
Given that consumer spending accounts for two-thirds of GDP and retail sales account for one-third of that, the 0.2% rise in November retail sales was superficially disappointing. But Y-o-Y inflation is zero! Were inflation just 2.3%, retail sales growth would…
The Friday File: This Monday, Governor Terry Branstad of Iowa will become the longest serving governor in US history at 7,640 days, almost 21 years, and will surpass the long held record of Vice President and Revolutionary War General George…
It’s remarkable that several Republican presidential candidates advocate a return to the gold standard. Doing so would outsource our money supply growth and thus monetary policy to the world’s largest gold producers including China, Russia, Peru and South Africa. And…
With a Fed rate hike a forgone conclusion, the next three issues of concern are: how gradually will the Fed raise rates, when does the Fed stop reinvesting interest and principal from their $4 trillion portfolio of Treasuries and agency…
Since bailing out Fannie and Freddie to the tune of $188 billion, the Treasury has taken all their profit and is slowly taking all their capital. By 2018, F&F will have none. Unfortunately, F&F are becoming less profitable as they…
Friday’s labor numbers were excellent! 211,000 net new jobs, upward revisions totaling 35,000 for September and October, an increase in the labor force participation rate from 62.4% to 62.5%, and decent year-over-year wage growth of 2.3%. Better yet, construction added…
The Friday File: After closely observing three pre-agricultural groups, one from Tanzania, one from southern Africa and one from Bolivia, researchers learned that these peoples averaged 6.5 hours of sleep/day. Moreover, the groups stayed awake for an average of 3.3…