The Fed enters 2018 with no clear plan for raising rates. At the last Fed meeting in December, 6 officials expected two rate hikes or less in 2018, 6 expected three hikes and 4 expected four or more rate increases.…
The prime-age population, those persons 25 through 54, number 125 million, of which 100 million are in the labor force. They comprise 63% of the labor force. Since 2000, about 17 million net new jobs have been created. And, all…
The Friday File: 1/3/18 was the last time a US passenger airline flew the iconic Boeing 747. It first flew on 2/9/69, and though designed for up to 660, the Israelis modified it to carry 1,087, service must have been…
In another sign the labor market is tightening, average overtime in October and November was 4.5 hours/week, tops since mid-2014; up substantially from 4.2 during the first five months of 2017. Back in 2014, OT was elevated out of a…
Oil prices have, somewhat surprisingly, more than doubled since 1/1/16. OPEC and Russia have cut supply by two million bbl/day, random outages and steadily declining Venezuelan production have helped, and geopolitical concerns (Iran) have pushed up prices. The biggest factor,…
Markets are currently pegging the odds of a government shutdown this Friday at midnight at 30%. If there is a shutdown, the average duration of the 11 that have occurred since 1977 is less than 4 days, and the cost…
While the yield on two-year Treasuries is up due to Fed action, and ten-year Treasuries are up due to small observed rises in inflation readings that are overdue – which markets may be reading too much into – inflation-linked rates…
The Friday file: The six-pack was invented in 1923 by the Coca-Cola company to spur sales. While the first beer company to sell product in six-packs is hotly debated, the plastic six-pack ring currently used was invented in 1960 in…
After setting records in 2015 and 2016, car sales slipped 1.8% in 2017, the first decline since the recession. One reason, the huge number of three-year old leased cars that are off-lease. The price gap between those vehicles and new…
17Q4 is shaping up to be surprisingly strong, with US GDP growth possibly as high as 3% for the third straight quarter. Employment growth is solid, auto sales are down but still strong, construction spending is good, surveys of manufacturers…