The imposition of a 10% tariff on aluminum and a 25% tariff on steel will boost inflation by upwards of one-tenth-of-one percent and reduce GDP by an equal amount. This is because prices will rise for all items containing these…
The Friday File: The PGA is the sport with the oldest fans; an average age of 63. Horse racing follows at 62, then NASCAR at 59 and cycling at 58. By contrast, soccer fans average just 41 years of age,…
The number of Americans filing first-time claims for unemployment for the week ending 2/24/18 fell to 210,000, the lowest level since 12/6/69! This is no fluke. The more stable four-week moving average for initial claims fell to 220,500, the lowest…
BP expects global demand for oil to peak in 2035 at 110 million bbl/day, up from 98 million today. Shell expects peak oil in 2025, while Chevron and Exxon offer no opinion. The Saudi energy minister expects peak oil demand…
The Fed continues to suggest it will stick to its gradual path of interest rate tightening despite oncoming massive fiscal stimulus. This makes sense. What better environment is there to see what impact running the economy hot will have than…
In 1/18, sales of existing houses came in at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 5.38 million. That’s 3.2% lower than 12/17 and 4.8% lower than 1/17, the steepest Y-o-Y decline since 8/14. Y-o-Y inventory declined for the 32nd straight month,…
The Friday File: Based on the 12-year Chinese zodiac cycle, this year is the year of the dog. And, while that may not sound propitious, since 1950 the S&P has averaged a 15.3% return in these years, better than any…
Even with unemployment near 20-year lows, labor is weak. In 1952, work stoppages involving 1,000 workers or more totaled 470, the most ever. In 1959, the number of lost work days from such strikes peaked at 60.85 million. As recently…
While the US desperately needs better infrastructure, the current White House plan will not work. The proposal relies way too much on already financially pinched state and local governments. Moreover, rising interest rates make borrowing more costly, lower personal income…
January housing starts came in at a seasonally-adjusted annualized rate of 1.326 million, their second highest level since 8/07. Single-family starts are also at their second-best level since 2007, 10/07 to be precise. Overall, starts are up 7.3% compared to…